Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Süper Lig · Türkiye · Matchday 8

FenerbahçeSüper Lig · #5

3-0Saturday, October 17

AlanyasporSüper Lig · #11

Match events

FenerbahçeAlanyaspor

17'✕M. GreenwoodMissed penalty
18'VARI. KahveciGoal Disallowed - video review
40'⚽R. LukakuAssist: L. Mercan
48'VARI. KahveciGoal Disallowed - Foul
60'⇄I. HagiOff: I. Kaya
60'⇄M. EliaOff: Hwang Ui-Jo

Chances to win

Fenerbahçe%73

Draw%17

Alanyaspor%10

At a glance

Over 1.5

%62Over 2.5

%50Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

FenerbahçeL0-6W3-0W8-0D0-0D1-1

AlanyasporD0-0W2-1D2-2W1-0L

Last 8 meetings

6Fenerbahçe won

2Draw

0Alanyaspor won

3.5
Goals per game6/8
Over 2.54/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Fenerbahçe · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Alanyaspor · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Fenerbahçe · last 10 at home5.7 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Alanyaspor · last 10 away4.4 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

Mert Günok, Archie Brown, Yiğit Efe Demir, Kojo Peprah Oppong, İsmail Yüksek, Mert Hakan Yandaş, Bartuğ Elmaz, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Vedat Muriqi, Dorgeles Nene

Alanyaspor · 3-4-3

48Paulo Victor

3Nuno Lima

5Fidan Aliti

20Fatih Aksoy

11Ruan Pereira Duarte

42Gaius Makouta

55Baran Ali Gezek

94Florent Hadergjonaj

7Ibrahim Kaya

16Hwang Ui-Jo

17Arda Usluoğlu

Bench

Mert Furkan Bayram, Bedirhan Özyurt, Enes Keskin, Ianis Hagi, Emre Demir, İzzet Çelik, Maestro, Yusuf Özdemir, Omar Ben Ali, Meschak Elia

Fenerbahçe – AlanyasporFebruary 11, 2024 · Süper Lig2-2

Alanyaspor – FenerbahçeSeptember 24, 2023 · Süper Lig0-1

Alanyaspor – FenerbahçeMarch 19, 2023 · Süper Lig1-3

Fenerbahçe – AlanyasporSeptember 18, 2022 · Süper Lig5-0

67'⇄K. AkturkogluOff: M. Greenwood

74'⇄O. Ben AliOff: A. Usluoglu

74'⇄E. KeskinOff: Ruan

77'⇄M. YandasOff: I. Kahveci

77'⇄A. BrownOff: L. Mercan

81'⇄D. NeneOff: O. Aydin

81'⇄V. MuriqiOff: R. Lukaku

87'⚽V. MuriqiAssist: K. Akturkoglu

90+1'⇄MaestroOff: B. Gezek

Statistics

60%Possession40%

3.75Expected goals0.99

24Total shots13

7Shots on target5

4Corners3

17Fouls3

3Offsides2

1Yellow cards0

4Saves5

90%Pass accuracy86%

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Fenerbahçe win.

%73Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%62

Not both score%50

Both score%50

Under 2.5%38

Draw%17

Alanyaspor win%10

Why?

Fenerbahçe · last 10 at home: 5 wins5/10

Fenerbahçe won 5 of their last 10 home matches.
Fenerbahçe scored 2.6 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Alanyaspor scored 0.9 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Fenerbahçe: 10 games · Alanyaspor: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.4Goals scored (avg)0.7

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.4Total goals per gameleague 2.92.1

10/10Over 0.5league %949/10

9/10Over 1.5league %777/10

6/10Over 2.5league %595/10

3/10Over 3.5league %310/10

2/10Over 4.5league %150/10

6/10Both scoreleague %465/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

0/10Failed to score4/10

Fenerbahçe: 10 games · Alanyaspor: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.2

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.92.5

9/10Over 0.5league %949/10

9/10Over 1.5league %777/10

8/10Over 2.5league %596/10

3/10Over 3.5league %312/10

2/10Over 4.5league %151/10

5/10Both scoreleague %466/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%86 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Fenerbahçe win 856, 87 end level and Alanyaspor win 57. The actual result comes up 856 times in 1000.

3.75 – 0.99 The score the chances deserved (xG): Fenerbahçe 3.75 – 0.99 Alanyaspor.

8.3

Man of the match: Nélson Semedo (Fenerbahçe), rated 8.3.

%73 Our model's pre-match chance of a Fenerbahçe win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Fenerbahçe's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

Alanyaspor · Süper Lig

Fenerbahçe · All games

Alanyaspor · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match