1. FC Heidenheim – Energie Cottbus: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·2. Bundesliga · Germany · Matchday 9

1. FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga · #6

1-1Saturday, October 24

Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga · #11

Match events

1. FC HeidenheimEnergie Cottbus

11'Jan Schoppner
16'Marcel Lotka
37'King Samuel Manu
40'⚽Lucas CopadoAssist: Tolcay Cigerci
45'⇄Marcel CostlyOff: Julian Niehues
49'⚽Oualid MhamdiAssist: Paul Hennrich

Chances to win

1. FC Heidenheim%56

Draw%21

Energie Cottbus%23

At a glance

Over 1.5

%74Over 2.5

%71Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%74Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%71

1. FC Heidenheim win%56

Not both score%29

Under 2.5%26

Energie Cottbus win%23

Draw%21

Why?

1. FC Heidenheim: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

1. FC HeidenheimL1-3D0-0D2-2W1-0W1-0

Energie CottbusD1-1L1-3D1-1W3-0D4-4

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

1. FC Heidenheim · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Energie Cottbus · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

1. FC Heidenheim · last 10 at home4.7 corners, 1.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Energie Cottbus · last 4 away8.5 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/4Over 4.5 corners4/4Over 5.5 corners4/4Over 0.5 cards4/4Over 1.5 cards4/4

Bench

K. Kratzsch, Max Böhnke, R. Malone, J. Zaydan, J. Boziaris, C. Kinsombi

Ryan MaloneOff: Tim Campulka

65'⇄Alessandro VogtOff: Mikkel Kaufmann

65'⇄Jannis BoziarisOff: Leon Guwara

65'⇄Jannis ZaydanOff: Fousseny Doumbia

79'⇄Mathias HonsakOff: Paul Hennrich

83'⇄Christian KinsombiOff: Dmytro Bogdanov

86'⇄Leart PaqardaOff: Michael Heule

Statistics

57%Possession43%

3.76Expected goals0.56

34Total shots7

8Shots on target3

15Corners2

6Fouls7

4Offsides1

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves5

Energie Cottbus: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

1. FC Heidenheim scored 2.3 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Energie Cottbus scored 1.6 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

1. FC Heidenheim · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Energie Cottbus · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

1. FC Heidenheim: 10 games · Energie Cottbus: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.8Total goals per gameleague 3.03.0

9/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %768/10

5/10Over 2.5league %576/10

5/10Over 3.5league %332/10

4/10Over 4.5league %161/10

6/10Both scoreleague %574/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

1. FC Heidenheim: 10 games · Energie Cottbus: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.5

2.0Goals conceded (avg)2.1

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.03.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

7/10Over 1.5league %7610/10

6/10Over 2.5league %576/10

5/10Over 3.5league %333/10

3/10Over 4.5league %162/10

7/10Both scoreleague %577/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%8 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), 1. FC Heidenheim win 881, 84 end level and Energie Cottbus win 35. The actual result comes up 84 times in 1000.

3.27 – 0.56 The score the chances deserved (xG): 1. FC Heidenheim 3.27 – 0.56 Energie Cottbus.

%21 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

32 – 7 Shots: 1. FC Heidenheim 32 – 7 Energie Cottbus.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga

Energie Cottbus · 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim · All games

Energie Cottbus · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match