Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Bundesliga · Germany · Matchday 6

Hamburger SVBundesliga · #11

1-0Saturday, October 17

VfB StuttgartBundesliga · #15

Match events

Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart

54'Warmed Omari
61'⇄Otto Emerson StangeOff: Yussuf Poulsen
67'⇄Chris FührichOff: Bilal El Khannouss
67'⇄Grischa PrömelOff: Atakan Karazor
77'⇄Dženan PejčinovićOff: Ermedin Demirović
77'⇄Leo SauerOff: Jamie Leweling

Chances to win

Hamburger SV%25

Draw%23

VfB Stuttgart%53

At a glance

Over 1.5

%67Over 2.5

%67Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%67Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%67

VfB Stuttgart win%53

Not both score%33

Under 2.5%33

Hamburger SV win%25

Draw%23

Why?

Hamburger SV: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Hamburger SVW3-2W2-1L0-5L0-5L0-2

VfB StuttgartW3-0W2-0L0-1L1-2W3-1

Last 4 meetings

1Hamburger SV won

0Draw

3VfB Stuttgart won

3.5
Goals per game4/4
Over 2.52/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Hamburger SV · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

VfB Stuttgart · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Hamburger SV · last 10 at home3.8 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners

VfB Stuttgart · last 10 away5.3 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Bench

S. Tangvik, Z. El Ouahdi, J. Torunarigha, S. Nandja, A. Grønbæk, Kofi Jeremy Amoako, T. Moffi, Otto Emerson Stange, Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit

VfB Stuttgart · 4-2-3-1

41D. Seimen

3R. Hendriks

4J. Vagnoman

24J. Chabot

29Finn Jeltsch

6A. Stiller

11B. El Khannouss

16A. Karazor

18J. Leweling

26D. Undav

9E. Demirović

Bench

F. Bredlow, L. Jaquez, L. Stergiou, L. Assignon, Y. Spalt, C. Führich, G. Prömel, D. Pejčinović, L. Sauer

78'⇄Albert GrönbaekOff: Martin Adeline

78'⇄Terem MoffiOff: Fábio Vieira

78'⇄Zakaria El OuahdiOff: Louis Pepe Lemke

84'⇄Kofi Jeremy AmoakoOff: Bilal Nadir

85'Otto Emerson Stange

88'⚽Miro MuheimAssist: Zakaria El Ouahdi

89'⇄Lorenz AssignonOff: Ramon Hendriks

Statistics

34%Possession66%

1.46Expected goals1.73

14Total shots24

3Shots on target5

5Corners9

12Fouls9

3Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

5Saves2

VfB Stuttgart: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches.

Hamburger SV scored 1.4 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

VfB Stuttgart scored 2.3 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Hamburger SV · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

VfB Stuttgart · last 10 away: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Hamburger SV: 10 games · VfB Stuttgart: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.9Total goals per gameleague 3.63.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

8/10Over 1.5league %808/10

6/10Over 2.5league %727/10

3/10Over 3.5league %554/10

2/10Over 4.5league %362/10

7/10Both scoreleague %584/10

1/10Clean sheets4/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Hamburger SV: 10 games · VfB Stuttgart: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.7

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.0

3.1Total goals per gameleague 3.62.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

8/10Over 1.5league %807/10

6/10Over 2.5league %725/10

4/10Over 3.5league %553/10

3/10Over 4.5league %362/10

4/10Both scoreleague %585/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%33 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Hamburger SV win 326, 232 end level and VfB Stuttgart win 441. The actual result comes up 326 times in 1000.

88'

Miro Muheim decided it in minute 88.

%25 Our model's pre-match chance of a Hamburger SV win.

34 – 66 Possession (%): Hamburger SV 34 – 66 VfB Stuttgart.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV · All games

VfB Stuttgart · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Hamburger SV's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match