1899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Bundesliga · Germany · Matchday 5

1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · #10

2-3Saturday, October 10

Hamburger SVBundesliga · #11

Match events

1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV

12'⚽Y. Poulsen
41'⇄M. MuheimOff: N. Remberg
45'⚽S. BornauwOwn goal
45+3'VARBambasé ContéGoal cancelled
53'⚽B. ConteAssist: F. Asllani
55'Bernardo
59'

Chances to win

1899 Hoffenheim%66

Draw%19

Hamburger SV%15

At a glance

Over 1.5

%67Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%67Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

1899 Hoffenheim win%66

Both score%60

Not both score%40

Under 2.5%33

Draw%19

Hamburger SV win%15

Why?

1899 Hoffenheim: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

1899 HoffenheimL1-3L0-2W2-1L2-3L2-3

Hamburger SVW2-1L0-5L0-5L0-2W3-0

Last 2 meetings

21899 Hoffenheim won

0Draw

0Hamburger SV won

4.0
Goals per game2/2
Over 2.52/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

1899 Hoffenheim · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Hamburger SV · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

1899 Hoffenheim · last 10 at home7.3 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Hamburger SV · last 10 away2.9 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/10Over 4.5 corners1/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

L. Philipp, R. Hranáč, V. Gendrey, A. Prass, M. Rots, Nathan De Cat, Max Moerstedt, A. Hložek, A. Kramarić

Hamburger SV · 3-4-2-1

1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

17W. Omari

33S. Bornauw

37L. Lemke

3D. Møller Wolfe

5M. Adeline

6A. Sambi Lokonga

20Fábio Vieira

21N. Remberg

24N. Capaldo

15Y. Poulsen

Bench

S. Tangvik, J. Torunarigha, M. Muheim, S. Nandja, I. Pherai, Kofi Jeremy Amoako, T. Moffi, Otto Emerson Stange, Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit

O. StangeOff: Y. Poulsen

63'⇄A. KramaricOff: F. Asllani

63'⇄A. HlozekOff: T. Lemperle

74'⇄R. HranacOff: K. Machida

74'⇄A. PrassOff: A. Daghim

76'⇄A. Rossing-LelesiitOff: L. Lemke

76'⇄K. AmoakoOff: A. S. Lokonga

76'⇄T. MoffiOff: M. Adeline

81'VAROtto StangeGoal cancelled

83'⚽T. MoffiAssist: M. Muheim

87'⇄V. GendreyOff: B. Conte

Statistics

64%Possession36%

0.93Expected goals1.28

17Total shots15

4Shots on target4

7Corners3

11Fouls16

3Offsides1

3Yellow cards0

1Red cards0

1Saves3

81%Pass accuracy69%

Hamburger SV: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

1899 Hoffenheim scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Hamburger SV scored 1.2 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

1899 Hoffenheim · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Hamburger SV · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

1899 Hoffenheim: 10 games · Hamburger SV: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.6Goals conceded (avg)2.2

3.7Total goals per gameleague 3.63.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %809/10

9/10Over 2.5league %727/10

4/10Over 3.5league %555/10

4/10Over 4.5league %363/10

7/10Both scoreleague %585/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score4/10

1899 Hoffenheim: 10 games · Hamburger SV: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.7Goals conceded (avg)2.0

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.63.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

10/10Over 1.5league %808/10

8/10Over 2.5league %726/10

4/10Over 3.5league %554/10

3/10Over 4.5league %363/10

7/10Both scoreleague %584/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%15 Our model's pre-match chance of an Hamburger SV win.

%37 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), 1899 Hoffenheim win 341, 288 end level and Hamburger SV win 371. The actual result comes up 371 times in 1000.

90+4'

Miro Muheim decided it in minute 90.

1.09 – 1.15 The score the chances deserved (xG): 1899 Hoffenheim 1.09 – 1.15 Hamburger SV.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim · All games

Hamburger SV · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match