Valencia – Athletic Club: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·La Liga · Spain · Matchday 9

ValenciaPrimera División · #19

0-0Saturday, October 17

Athletic ClubPrimera División · #8

Match events

ValenciaAthletic Club

19'Daniel Raba Antolín
38'Aymeric Laporte
42'Beñat Gerenabarrena
45'⇄Mikel JauregizarOff: Beñat Gerenabarrena
54'⇄David Otorbi EjededaweOff: Hugo Duro
54'⇄Luis RiojaOff: Daniel Raba Antolín

Chances to win

Valencia%31

Draw%29

Athletic Club%40

At a glance

Over 1.5

%46Over 2.5

%52Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%52

Not both score%48

Over 2.5%46

Athletic Club win%40

Valencia win%31

Draw%29

Why?

Valencia: 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

ValenciaD2-2L2-3W1-0L0-1L0-5

Athletic ClubD0-0D1-1W3-0W2-0L0-2

Last 10 meetings

3Valencia won

1Draw

6Athletic Club won

2.1
Goals per game4/10
Over 2.54/10
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Valencia · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Athletic Club · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).5/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Valencia · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Athletic Club · last 10 away5.7 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

K. van Oevelen, M. Diakhaby, Jesús Vázquez, Arnau Martínez, H. Elliott, A. Dieng, F. Ugrinic, Aaron Mayol, R. Sato, Luis Rioja, David Otorbi, Aimar Blázquez

Athletic Club · 4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón

4Aitor Paredes

14Aymeric Laporte

15Hugo Rincón

31J. Louis-Jean

7Álex Berenguer

16Ruíz de Galarreta

23Robert Navarro

24Beñat Gerenabarrena

28Peio Canales

9I. Williams

Bench

Álex Padilla, Dani Vivian, Yeray, Jesús Areso, Yuri, Beñat Prados, Mikel Jauregizar, Alejandro Rego, Gorka Guruzeta, Maroan Sannadi, Nico Serrano, Christian Imga

Athletic Club – ValenciaAugust 28, 2024 · La Liga1-0

Valencia – Athletic ClubJanuary 20, 2024 · La Liga1-0

Athletic Club – ValenciaOctober 29, 2023 · La Liga2-2

Valencia – Athletic ClubFebruary 11, 2023 · La Liga1-2

Valencia – Athletic ClubJanuary 26, 2023 · Copa del Rey1-3

Athletic Club – ValenciaAugust 21, 2022 · La Liga1-0

Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

63'⇄Alejandro Rego MoraOff: Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

63'⇄Gorka GuruzetaOff: Iñaki Williams

63'⇄Jesus AresoOff: Johaneko Louis-Jean

68'⇄Maroan SannadiOff: Gorka Guruzeta

74'⇄Harvey ElliottOff: Justin De Haas

85'⇄Jesús VázquezOff: José Gayà

86'⇄Filip UgrinicOff: Guido Rodríguez

87'José Luis García Vayá

90'César Tárrega Requeni

Statistics

37%Possession63%

1.49Expected goals0.65

16Total shots9

3Shots on target2

2Corners6

14Fouls13

2Offsides1

3Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

1Saves3

Athletic Club: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Valencia scored 1.3 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Athletic Club scored 1.1 and conceded 2.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Athletic Club · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Valencia: 10 games · Athletic Club: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.9

2.5Total goals per gameleague 3.03.6

8/10Over 0.5league %919/10

7/10Over 1.5league %769/10

5/10Over 2.5league %565/10

3/10Over 3.5league %365/10

2/10Over 4.5league %224/10

5/10Both scoreleague %585/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

5/10Failed to score4/10

Valencia: 10 games · Athletic Club: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.7Goals scored (avg)1.8

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.0

2.4Total goals per gameleague 3.02.8

8/10Over 0.5league %918/10

5/10Over 1.5league %768/10

5/10Over 2.5league %565/10

4/10Over 3.5league %364/10

2/10Over 4.5league %221/10

4/10Both scoreleague %584/10

3/10Clean sheets5/10

5/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%26 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Valencia win 576, 262 end level and Athletic Club win 162. The actual result comes up 262 times in 1000.

%29 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.49 – 0.65 The score the chances deserved (xG): Valencia 1.49 – 0.65 Athletic Club.

7.2

Man of the match: Pepelu (Valencia), rated 7.2.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 10 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Valencia · La Liga

Athletic Club · La Liga

Valencia · All games

Athletic Club · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Valencia's ground

Last 10 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match