Malaga – Real Sociedad: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·La Liga · Spain · Matchday 9

MalagaPrimera División · #20

2-5Sunday, October 18

Real SociedadPrimera División · #5

Match events

MalagaReal Sociedad

3'⚽T. KuboAssist: H. Fort
26'⚽O. Oskarsson
37'Jon Martin
46'⇄A. AznouOff: J. Salinas
46'⇄R. EnriquezOff: I. Merino
54'⚽A. NinoAssist: P. Martinez
59'

Chances to win

Malaga%33

Draw%27

Real Sociedad%41

At a glance

Over 1.5

%57Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%57

Under 2.5%43

Real Sociedad win%41

Not both score%40

Malaga win%33

Draw%27

Why?

Malaga: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MalagaD1-1L0-1L1-3D1-1D0-0

Real SociedadD1-1W3-2W3-2L1-2L0-3

Last 1 meetings

0Malaga won

0Draw

1Real Sociedad won

1.0
Goals per game0/1
Over 2.50/1
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Malaga · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Real Sociedad · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Malaga · last 10 at home5.6 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners5/10

Real Sociedad · last 10 away4.7 corners, 3.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

21Adrián Niño Heredia

Bench

Carlos López, Puga, Einar Galilea, Álex Pastor, Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh, J. Cajuste, Ramón Enríquez, Rafa Rodríguez, Dani Lorenzo, H. Abaida, Joaquín Muñoz, Eneko Jauregi

Real Sociedad · 4-4-2

1Álex Remiro

3Aihen Muñoz

6Jon Martín

19M. Sarr

22Héctor Fort

4Jon Gorrotxategi

7Barrenetxea

14T. Kubo

18Carlos Soler

9O. Óskarsson

10Mikel Oyarzabal

Bench

Unai Marrero, Zubeldia, Jon Pacheco, Beñat Turrientes, A. Zakharyan, L. Sučić, A. Lebarbier, Gonçalo Guedes, J. Ochieng, Sergio Gómez, Gorka Carrera, Alex Garcia

M. OyarzabalAssist: T. Kubo

61'⇄I. ZubeldiaOff: H. Fort

61'⇄G. GuedesOff: A. Barrenetxea

64'⇄D. LorenzoOff: C. Dotor

67'⚽M. OyarzabalAssist: J. Martin

68'⇄J. MunozOff: D. Larrubia

71'⇄S. GomezOff: A. Munoz

71'⇄J. OchiengOff: T. Kubo

79'⇄A. MarchalOff: O. Oskarsson

82'⇄C. PugaOff: A. Nino

Statistics

45%Possession55%

1.24Expected goals2.44

17Total shots21

6Shots on target9

4Corners5

4Fouls9

2Offsides2

1Yellow cards2

4Saves4

86%Pass accuracy89%

Real Sociedad: both sides scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Malaga scored 1.1 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Real Sociedad scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Malaga · last 10 at home: both scored 7 times7/10

Real Sociedad · last 10 away: both scored 8 times8/10

Malaga: 10 games · Real Sociedad: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.7Total goals per gameleague 3.03.6

8/10Over 0.5league %9110/10

8/10Over 1.5league %768/10

4/10Over 2.5league %565/10

3/10Over 3.5league %365/10

2/10Over 4.5league %225/10

8/10Both scoreleague %587/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Malaga: 10 games · Real Sociedad: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)2.4

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.7Total goals per gameleague 3.03.9

9/10Over 0.5league %919/10

8/10Over 1.5league %769/10

4/10Over 2.5league %568/10

3/10Over 3.5league %365/10

1/10Over 4.5league %225/10

6/10Both scoreleague %587/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

1.10 – 2.43 The score the chances deserved (xG): Malaga 1.10 – 2.43 Real Sociedad.

%67 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Malaga win 155, 178 end level and Real Sociedad win 666. The actual result comes up 666 times in 1000.

9.2

Man of the match: Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), rated 9.2.

%41 Our model's pre-match chance of an Real Sociedad win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 1 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Malaga · La Liga

Real Sociedad · La Liga

Malaga · All games

Real Sociedad · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 1 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match