Plymouth – Reading: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·League One · England · Matchday 14

PlymouthLeague One · #5

0-0Saturday, October 31

ReadingLeague One · #6

Match events

PlymouthReading

25'Will Evans
63'⇄Daniel·KyerewaaOff: Randell Williams
63'⇄Jack MarriottOff: Jamie Reid
80'⇄Oliver IrowOff: Xavier Amaechi
80'⇄Malachi BoatengOff: Tyreeq Bakinson
83'⇄Mathias Ross JensenOff: Julio Pleguezuelo

Chances to win

Plymouth%41

Draw%26

Reading%33

At a glance

Over 1.5

%61Over 2.5

%64Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%64

Plymouth win%41

Under 2.5%39

Not both score%36

Reading win%33

Draw%26

Why?

Plymouth: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

PlymouthW3-2L0-3L0-2W2-1D2-2

ReadingW2-1W1-0L0-1L0-2W5-1

Last 4 meetings

0Plymouth won

1Draw

3Reading won

4.3
Goals per game3/4
Over 2.53/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Plymouth · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Reading · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Plymouth · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 1.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Reading · last 10 away5.0 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

J. Stevens, H. Roberts, L. Fraser, C. Savage, D. Kyerewaa, J. Marriott, J. Brown

Jacob BrownOff: Josh Stokes

85'⇄Haydon RobertsOff: Josh Knight

90+1'Kyreece Joshua Lisbie

Statistics

44%Possession56%

0.87Expected goals1.15

13Total shots14

4Shots on target4

3Corners7

14Fouls16

0Offsides2

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

4Saves4

Reading: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Plymouth scored 1.9 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Reading scored 1.4 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Plymouth · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Plymouth: 10 games · Reading: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.0

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.82.4

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

9/10Over 1.5league %797/10

6/10Over 2.5league %544/10

3/10Over 3.5league %312/10

2/10Over 4.5league %151/10

5/10Both scoreleague %586/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Plymouth: 10 games · Reading: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.2

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.82.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %798/10

7/10Over 2.5league %545/10

4/10Over 3.5league %312/10

3/10Over 4.5league %151/10

5/10Both scoreleague %586/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%30 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Plymouth win 276, 303 end level and Reading win 421. The actual result comes up 303 times in 1000.

%26 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.87 – 1.15 The score the chances deserved (xG): Plymouth 0.87 – 1.15 Reading.

7.5

Man of the match: Joel Pereira (Reading), rated 7.5.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Plymouth · League One

Reading · League One

Plymouth · All games

Reading · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Plymouth's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match