Barnsley – Oxford United: probabilities, statistics and live score

BarnsleyLeague One · #23

1-1Saturday, October 31

Oxford UnitedLeague One · #3

Match events

BarnsleyOxford United

9'Jack Shepherd
11'Brodie Spencer
12'⇄Jubril OkedinaOff: Tobi Adeyemo
32'⚽Vimal YoganathanAssist: Jubril Okedina
45'⇄Aidomo EmakhuOff: Luka Lynch
45'⇄Peter KiosoOff: Brodie Spencer

Chances to win

Barnsley%35

Draw%25

Oxford United%40

At a glance

Over 1.5

%61Over 2.5

%64Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

BarnsleyL1-2L1-2L1-2L1-3L1-4

Oxford UnitedW1-0D0-0W2-1D1-1W

Last 7 meetings

5Barnsley won

1Draw

1Oxford United won

3.3
Goals per game5/7
Over 2.54/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Barnsley · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Oxford United · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Barnsley · last 10 at home9.4 corners, 2.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners10/10Over 5.5 corners7/10Over 0.5 cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%64

Oxford United win%40

Under 2.5%39

Not both score%36

Barnsley win%35

Draw%25

Why?

Barnsley · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Oxford United · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Barnsley: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Oxford United: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Barnsley scored 1.5 and conceded 2.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Oxford United scored 1.4 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Barnsley: 10 games · Oxford United: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.3

2.1Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.82.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %809/10

6/10Over 2.5league %545/10

4/10Over 3.5league %313/10

3/10Over 4.5league %150/10

9/10Both scoreleague %576/10

0/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Barnsley: 10 games · Oxford United: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.7

2.5Goals conceded (avg)0.7

3.8Total goals per gameleague 2.82.4

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

10/10Over 1.5league %808/10

8/10Over 2.5league %545/10

4/10Over 3.5league %312/10

3/10Over 4.5league %150/10

9/10Both scoreleague %576/10

0/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%15 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Barnsley win 103, 148 end level and Oxford United win 749. The actual result comes up 148 times in 1000.

%25 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.92 – 2.70 The score the chances deserved (xG): Barnsley 0.92 – 2.70 Oxford United.

11 – 35 Shots: Barnsley 11 – 35 Oxford United.

4 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Barnsley's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Barnsley · League One

Oxford United · League One

Barnsley · All games

Oxford United · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match