Cardiff – Watford: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Championship · England · Matchday 10

Cardiff

5-1Tuesday, October 13

Watford

Match events

CardiffWatford

9'Martin Payero
11'⚽Jack MoylanPenalty
29'⇄William FishOff: Dylan Lawlor
35'⚽Jack MoylanAssist: C. Ashford
41'⚽Matthew PollockOwn goal
45+5'⚽Ollie·TannerAssist: Perry Tian Hee Ng
56'

Chances to win

Cardiff%56

Draw%23

Watford%21

At a glance

Over 1.5

%61Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%61

Cardiff win%56

Not both score%39

Under 2.5%39

Draw%23

Watford win%21

Why?

Cardiff: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

CardiffL1-2W3-1L0-1D1-1L0-2

WatfordL0-4L0-1L1-2W2-1L0-1

Last 6 meetings

3Cardiff won

2Draw

1Watford won

2.5
Goals per game3/6
Over 2.55/6
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Cardiff · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Watford · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).5/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Cardiff · last 10 at home7.4 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners9/10Over 5.5 corners8/10Over 0.5 cards

Watford · last 10 away4.1 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

H. Tyrer, W. Fish, C. Scanlon, R. Kpakio, D. Turnbull, P. Moreno, I. Davies, C. Robinson

Watford · 4-2-3-1

1F. Ravaglia

4K. Keben

6M. Pollock

23O. Traoré

33J. Zemura

5H. Kyprianou

7O. Maamma

22M. Payero

39E. Kayembe

45S. Mavididi

10M. Boadu

Bench

D. Bachmann, S. Coulibaly, M. Bola, Branimir Mlačić, K. Diatta, L. Kjerrumgaard, Iker Bravo, M. Doumbia, Amin Nabizada

Watford – CardiffApril 19, 2023 · Championship1-3

Cardiff – WatfordNovember 2, 2022 · Championship1-2

Amin NabizadaOff: Stephy Mavididi

56'⇄Marc BolaOff: Jordan Zemura

56'⇄Mamadou DoumbiaOff: Myron Boadu

65'✕Christopher WillockMissed penalty

67'⇄Iker BravoOff: Martin Payero

69'⇄Krépin DiattaOff: Othmane Maamma

69'⇄Calum ScanlonOff: Christopher Willock

69'⇄David TurnbullOff: Jack Moylan

82'⇄Callum RobinsonOff: Ollie·Tanner

82'⇄Isaak DaviesOff: Joel Bagan

85'⚽Callum RobinsonAssist: David Turnbull

86'Perry Tian Hee Ng

87'⚽Hector KyprianouAssist: Iker Bravo

90+5'Hector Kyprianou

Statistics

58%Possession42%

3.75Expected goals1.52

22Total shots11

10Shots on target3

6Corners1

12Fouls11

4Offsides4

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

3Saves5

Watford: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Cardiff scored 1.9 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Watford scored 0.5 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Cardiff · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Cardiff: 10 games · Watford: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.3Goals scored (avg)0.4

1.1Goals conceded (avg)2.3

3.4Total goals per gameleague 2.92.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %767/10

6/10Over 2.5league %604/10

5/10Over 3.5league %372/10

3/10Over 4.5league %142/10

8/10Both scoreleague %634/10

2/10Clean sheets0/10

0/10Failed to score6/10

Cardiff: 10 games · Watford: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)0.7

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.8

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.92.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %767/10

6/10Over 2.5league %604/10

4/10Over 3.5league %372/10

1/10Over 4.5league %141/10

7/10Both scoreleague %634/10

1/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score5/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

3.75 – 1.52 The score the chances deserved (xG): Cardiff 3.75 – 1.52 Watford.

%78 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Cardiff win 775, 115 end level and Watford win 111. The actual result comes up 775 times in 1000.

22 – 11 Shots: Cardiff 22 – 11 Watford.

10 – 3 Shots on target: Cardiff 10 – 3 Watford.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 6 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Cardiff · Championship

Watford · Championship

Cardiff · All games

Watford · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Cardiff's ground

Last 6 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match