Bristol City – Blackburn: probabilities, statistics and live score

Bristol City

0-1Tuesday, October 13

Blackburn

Match events

Bristol CityBlackburn

38'⚽Oladapo AfolayanAssist: Sean McLoughlin
45'⇄Yu HirakawaOff: Sam Greenwood
62'⇄Augustus KargboOff: Ryoya Morishita
62'⇄Moussa·BaradjiOff: Todd Cantwell
63'⇄J. FevrierOff: Oladapo Afolayan
67'⇄Tomi HorvatOff: Scott Twine

Chances to win

Bristol City%44

Draw%28

Blackburn%28

At a glance

Over 1.5

%49Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Bristol CityD1-1W1-0L0-1L1-4W2-1

BlackburnW2-1D2-2W3-1L1-2L

Last 8 meetings

4Bristol City won

1Draw

3Blackburn won

3.1
Goals per game6/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Bristol City · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Blackburn · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Bristol City · last 10 at home5.7 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Blackburn · 3-4-2-1

22B. Tóth

6Tom Atcheson

15S. McLoughlin

17H. Carter

2R. Alebiosu

3H. Pickering

8Sam Morsy

21O. Afolayan

25R. Morishita

31Kristi Montgomery

10T. Cantwell

Bench

A. Pears, Gady Beyuku, D. De Neve, M. Baradji, J. Garrett, A. Kargbo, A. Guðjohnsen, J. Fevrier, M. Jørgensen

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%51Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%54

Over 2.5%49

Not both score%46

Bristol City win%44

Blackburn win%28

Draw%28

Why?

Bristol City · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 8 times8/10

Bristol City: 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
Blackburn: 2 or fewer goals in 3 of their last 10 away matches.
Bristol City scored 0.8 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Blackburn scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Bristol City: 10 games · Blackburn: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.8

1.9Total goals per gameleague 2.93.1

10/10Over 0.5league %949/10

4/10Over 1.5league %778/10

2/10Over 2.5league %628/10

1/10Over 3.5league %395/10

1/10Over 4.5league %161/10

2/10Both scoreleague %626/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

5/10Failed to score3/10

Bristol City: 10 games · Blackburn: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.3Total goals per gameleague 2.92.9

9/10Over 0.5league %949/10

5/10Over 1.5league %778/10

4/10Over 2.5league %627/10

3/10Over 3.5league %394/10

2/10Over 4.5league %161/10

5/10Both scoreleague %626/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%4 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Bristol City win 777, 187 end level and Blackburn win 37. The actual result comes up 37 times in 1000.

1.82 – 0.21 The score the chances deserved (xG): Bristol City 1.82 – 0.21 Blackburn.

%28 Our model's pre-match chance of an Blackburn win.

15 – 3 Shots: Bristol City 15 – 3 Blackburn.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Bristol City's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Bristol City · Championship

Blackburn · Championship

Bristol City · All games

Blackburn · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match