Sunderland – Leeds: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier League · England · Matchday 8

SunderlandPremier League · #20

0-0Sunday, October 25

LeedsPremier League · #7

Match events

SunderlandLeeds

29'Ethan Ampadu
39'Reinildo Isnard Mandava
52'⇄Omar AldereteOff: Nordi Mukiele
65'⇄Noah OkaforOff: Brenden Aaronson
65'⇄Timur TutierovOff: Brian Brobbey
66'⇄Anton StachOff: Harry Wilson

Chances to win

Sunderland%32

Draw%30

Leeds%38

At a glance

Over 1.5

%45Over 2.5

%52Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%52

Not both score%48

Over 2.5%45

Leeds win%38

Sunderland win%32

Draw%30

Why?

Sunderland: 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

SunderlandD1-1L0-2W2-1L0-2L3-5

LeedsD1-1L1-2D0-0W4-1L3-6

Last 10 meetings

3Sunderland won

4Draw

3Leeds won

1.7
Goals per game2/10
Over 2.54/10
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sunderland · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Leeds · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sunderland · last 10 at home5.7 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Leeds · last 10 away3.4 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

M. Ellborg, D. Methalie, O. Alderete, H. Diarra, Jules Ahoka, C. Talbi, M. Fofana, J. Angulo, Timur Tuterov

Leeds · 3-4-2-1

1J. Trafford

5T. Muharemović

15J. Bijol

24J. Justin

2J. Bogle

3G. Gudmundsson

4E. Ampadu

10H. Wilson

11B. Aaronson

22A. Tanaka

9D. Calvert-Lewin

Bench

M. Zetterer, M. Bard, S. Longstaff, A. Stach, I. Gruev, Alfie Cresswell, L. Nmecha, N. Okafor, J. Bahoya

Sunderland – LeedsOctober 4, 2024 · Championship2-2

Leeds – SunderlandApril 9, 2024 · Championship0-0

Sunderland – LeedsDecember 12, 2023 · Championship1-0

Leeds – SunderlandApril 7, 2018 · Championship1-1

Sunderland – LeedsAugust 19, 2017 · Championship0-2

Sunderland – LeedsJanuary 4, 2015 · FA Cup1-0

79'⇄Chemsdine TalbiOff: Nilson Angulo

79'⇄Habib DiarraOff: Enzo Le Fée

85'⇄Lukas NmechaOff: Dominic Calvert-Lewin

89'⇄Sean LongstaffOff: Ao Tanaka

Statistics

45%Possession55%

0.99Expected goals0.63

15Total shots11

4Shots on target4

4Corners5

10Fouls14

3Offsides0

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

3Saves4

Leeds: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Sunderland scored 0.6 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Leeds scored 1.3 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Sunderland · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 8 times8/10

Leeds · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Sunderland: 10 games · Leeds: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.0Total goals per gameleague 2.82.7

8/10Over 0.5league %939/10

5/10Over 1.5league %767/10

3/10Over 2.5league %504/10

2/10Over 3.5league %312/10

2/10Over 4.5league %181/10

2/10Both scoreleague %505/10

5/10Clean sheets3/10

5/10Failed to score3/10

Sunderland: 10 games · Leeds: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.2

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.82.6

9/10Over 0.5league %938/10

7/10Over 1.5league %767/10

3/10Over 2.5league %503/10

2/10Over 3.5league %312/10

2/10Over 4.5league %182/10

4/10Both scoreleague %506/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%34 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sunderland win 431, 342 end level and Leeds win 227. The actual result comes up 342 times in 1000.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.99 – 0.63 The score the chances deserved (xG): Sunderland 0.99 – 0.63 Leeds.

7.6

Man of the match: J. Trafford (Leeds), rated 7.6.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 10 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sunderland · Premier League

Leeds · Premier League

Sunderland · All games

Leeds · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Sunderland's ground

Last 10 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match