Lech Poznan – Sunderland: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·UEFA Europa League · League phase · Matchday 3

Lech PoznanEkstraklasa · #1

1-1Thursday, October 22

SunderlandPremier League · #20

Match events

Lech PoznanSunderland

2'⚽Timur TutierovAssist: Nilson Angulo
41'Kevin Danso
62'⇄Luis PalmaOff: Daniel Håkans
62'⇄Leo BengtssonOff: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
63'⇄Chris RiggOff: Nilson Angulo
63'⇄Enzo Le FéeOff: Habib Diarra

Chances to win

Lech Poznan%24

Draw%25

Sunderland%51

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%55

Sunderland win%51

Under 2.5%46

Not both score%45

Draw%25

Lech Poznan win%24

Why?

Lech Poznan: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Lech PoznanW6-1L0-4W4-1W5-1L0-4

SunderlandL0-2W2-1L0-2L3-5W1-0

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Lech Poznan · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Sunderland · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Lech Poznan · last 10 at home7.1 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners9/10Over 5.5 corners5/10

Sunderland · last 10 away4.9 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

This season 5 games · 2 goals · 0 assists · Off the roster

J. Ta Bi

This season 3 games · 0 goals · 2 assists · Off the roster

J. Angulo

This season 1 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Off the roster

Starting line-ups

Lech Poznan · 4-2-3-1

1M. Lis

2Joel Pereira

15M. Gurgul

59T. Yegbe

72M. Skrzypczak

10P. Wålemark

11D. Håkans

21Pablo Rodríguez

22R. Murawski

43A. Kozubal

9M. Ishak

Bench

Wiktor Obremski, M. Pruchniewski, H. Janyszka, G. Berggren, L. Bengtsson, F. Jagiełło, L. Palma, Y. Agnero, W. Szymczak

Sunderland · 4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs

4K. Danso

6D. Methalie

13L. O'Nien

20N. Mukiele

10N. Angulo

19H. Diarra

29Jules Ahoka

34G. Xhaka

39M. Fofana

57Timur Tuterov

Bench

S. Moore, O. Alderete, Reinildo, T. Hume, Jenson Jones, C. Rigg, N. Sadiki, E. Le Fée, J. Whittaker, T. Proctor, T. Ogunsuyi, F. Scott

63'⇄Noah SadikiOff: Granit Xhaka

63'⇄Trai HumeOff: Nordi Mukiele

82'⇄Gustav BerggrenOff: Patrick Walemark

82'⇄Y. AgneroOff: Radosław Murawski

85'⇄Reinildo Isnard MandavaOff: Timur Tutierov

87'⇄Filip JagiełłoOff: Mikael Ishak

Statistics

43%Possession57%

2.68Expected goals2.99

16Total shots25

6Shots on target11

3Corners6

7Fouls13

1Offsides1

0Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

11Saves5

Sunderland: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Lech Poznan scored 2.5 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Sunderland scored 1.6 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Lech Poznan · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Sunderland · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Lech Poznan: 10 games · Sunderland: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.9Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.9Goals conceded (avg)2.1

3.8Total goals per gameleague 2.93.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

8/10Over 1.5league %7610/10

7/10Over 2.5league %606/10

5/10Over 3.5league %334/10

3/10Over 4.5league %172/10

5/10Both scoreleague %469/10

4/10Clean sheets0/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Lech Poznan: 10 games · Sunderland: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.2Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.8

3.9Total goals per gameleague 2.92.9

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

9/10Over 1.5league %768/10

8/10Over 2.5league %604/10

6/10Over 3.5league %333/10

3/10Over 4.5league %172/10

7/10Both scoreleague %465/10

0/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%18 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Lech Poznan win 366, 177 end level and Sunderland win 457. The actual result comes up 177 times in 1000.

%25 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.51 – 2.78 The score the chances deserved (xG): Lech Poznan 2.51 – 2.78 Sunderland.

8.6

Man of the match: M. Lis (Lech Poznan), rated 8.6.

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Lech Poznan · European games

Sunderland · European games

Lech Poznan · All games

Sunderland · All games

Missing players

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match