Philadelphia Union – Charlotte: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Major League Soccer · USA · Matchday 30

Philadelphia UnionEastern Conference · #6

2-2Saturday, October 17

CharlotteEastern Conference · #4

Match events

Philadelphia UnionCharlotte

19'Allan Saint-Maximin
24'⚽Milan IloskiPenalty
44'Morrison Agyemang
45+1'David Schnegg
48'⚽Rodolfo AlokoAssist: Idan Toklomati Jorno
55'⇄Quinn SullivanOff: Indiana Vassilev

Chances to win

Philadelphia Union%66

Draw%18

Charlotte%16

At a glance

Over 1.5

%71Over 2.5

%64Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Philadelphia UnionW3-1W2-1W4-2W4-3W5-0

CharlotteL1-3W3-2L0-1W2-1D

Last 9 meetings

3Philadelphia Union won

2Draw

4Charlotte won

2.3
Goals per game4/9
Over 2.53/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Philadelphia Union · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Charlotte · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Philadelphia Union · last 10 at home6.4 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Charlotte · last 10 away3.9 corners, 1.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards2/10

Bench

A. Rick, J. Sery Larsen, A. Bedoya, J. Rafanello, B. Bender, Q. Sullivan, E. Alladoh, A. Anello, M. Jakupovic

Charlotte · 4-3-3

1K. Kahlina

14N. Byrne

22H. Kessler

23D. Schnegg

44M. Agyemang

8A. Westwood

16Pep Biel

28D. Diani

9I. Toklomati Giorno

10A. Saint-Maximin

37R. Aloko

Bench

T. Miller, T. Ream, A. Privett, H. Toffolo, Will Cleary, B. Bronico, L. de la Torre, L. Abada, Tyger Smalls

June 23, 2024 · Major League Soccer

Charlotte – Philadelphia UnionMay 26, 2024 · Major League Soccer0-0

Charlotte – Philadelphia UnionSeptember 21, 2023 · Major League Soccer2-2

Philadelphia Union – CharlotteJune 1, 2023 · Major League Soccer1-0

Charlotte – Philadelphia UnionOctober 2, 2022 · Major League Soccer4-0

Philadelphia Union – CharlotteApril 4, 2022 · Major League Soccer2-0

Idan Toklomati JornoAssist: David Schnegg

73'⚽Bruno DamianiAssist: Danley Jean Jacques

82'⇄Malik JakupovicOff: Bruno Damiani

83'⇄Liel AbadaOff: Allan Saint-Maximin

83'⇄Luca De La TorreOff: Djibril Diani

83'⇄Harry ToffoloOff: David Schnegg

90+12'⇄Tyger SmallsOff: Rodolfo Aloko

Statistics

40%Possession60%

2.64Expected goals1.63

21Total shots13

5Shots on target3

7Corners1

18Fouls15

2Offsides0

0Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

1Saves3

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%71Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Philadelphia Union win%66

Both score%64

Not both score%36

Under 2.5%29

Draw%18

Charlotte win%16

Why?

Philadelphia Union · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Charlotte · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Philadelphia Union: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Charlotte: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
Philadelphia Union scored 2.5 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Charlotte scored 1.8 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Philadelphia Union: 10 games · Charlotte: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.4Goals scored (avg)2.0

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.8

3.8Total goals per gameleague 3.23.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

10/10Over 1.5league %8310/10

8/10Over 2.5league %648/10

6/10Over 3.5league %415/10

3/10Over 4.5league %233/10

7/10Both scoreleague %648/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

Philadelphia Union: 10 games · Charlotte: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.6Goals scored (avg)2.3

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.8Total goals per gameleague 3.23.9

9/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

8/10Over 1.5league %839/10

8/10Over 2.5league %649/10

6/10Over 3.5league %417/10

4/10Over 4.5league %233/10

6/10Both scoreleague %647/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%18 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Philadelphia Union win 593, 180 end level and Charlotte win 227. The actual result comes up 180 times in 1000.

%18 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.64 – 1.63 The score the chances deserved (xG): Philadelphia Union 2.64 – 1.63 Charlotte.

7 – 1 Corners: Philadelphia Union 7 – 1 Charlotte.

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Philadelphia Union's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer

Charlotte · Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union · All games

Charlotte · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match