AC Oulu – VPS: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Veikkausliiga · Finland · Championship Group - 30

AC OuluVeikkausliiga · #5

0-0Wednesday, October 28

VPSVeikkausliiga · #6

Match events

AC OuluVPS

6'Joel lotvonen
45'⇄Juuso MäkeläinenOff: Joel lotvonen
61'⇄Roope RiskiOff: Camilo Triana
69'⇄Henri SalomaaOff: Casper Holmelund
69'⇄Kevin Kouassivi-BenissanOff: Joonas Vahtera
78'⇄Niklas JokelainenOff: Elias Kallio

Chances to win

AC Oulu%39

Draw%27

VPS%34

At a glance

Over 1.5

%53Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%53

Under 2.5%47

Not both score%42

AC Oulu win%39

VPS win%34

Draw%27

Why?

AC Oulu: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AC OuluW4-3W2-1L3-4W1-0L0-1

VPSL0-1L0-2W1-0L0-6L0-2

Last 15 meetings

5AC Oulu won

4Draw

6VPS won

3.1
Goals per game9/15
Over 2.510/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

AC Oulu · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

VPS · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

AC Oulu · last 4 at home3.5 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/4Over 4.5 corners2/4Over 5.5 corners1/4Over 0.5 cards4/4Over 1.5 cards2/4

VPS · last 5 away4.4 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/5Over 4.5 corners3/5Over 5.5 corners1/5Over 0.5 cards4/5Over 1.5 cards4/5

8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel Lima

13Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi

Bench

A. Piispa, L. Väyrynen, A. Arrakoski, K. Kouassivi-Benissan, Razak Simpson, Dren Tërrnava, J. Muzinga, Henri Salomaa, W. Samaké

AC Oulu – VPSOctober 4, 2025 · Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu – VPSJune 28, 2025 · Veikkausliiga2-1

VPS – AC OuluApril 5, 2025 · Veikkausliiga4-3

VPS – AC OuluFebruary 8, 2025 · League Cup2-1

AC Oulu – VPSJanuary 17, 2025 · Friendlies Clubs3-3

VPS – AC OuluJune 19, 2024 · Veikkausliiga1-1

AC Oulu – VPSApril 27, 2024 · Veikkausliiga1-2

VPS – AC OuluFebruary 17, 2024 · League Cup1-1

VPS – AC OuluJuly 15, 2023 · Veikkausliiga3-0

AC Oulu – VPSJune 22, 2023 · Suomen Cup0-0

AC Oulu – VPSMay 13, 2023 · Veikkausliiga2-1

Dren terrnavaOff: Simon Lindholm

Statistics

30%Possession70%

1.1Expected goals1.51

10Total shots16

2Shots on target4

4Corners8

14Fouls17

1Offsides1

2Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

4Saves2

VPS: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

AC Oulu scored 1.0 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

VPS scored 0.9 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

AC Oulu · last 10 at home: both scored 5 times5/10

VPS · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

AC Oulu: 10 games · VPS: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.2Total goals per gameleague 2.52.6

8/10Over 0.5league %939/10

5/10Over 1.5league %717/10

3/10Over 2.5league %435/10

2/10Over 3.5league %243/10

2/10Over 4.5league %131/10

4/10Both scoreleague %495/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

5/10Failed to score4/10

AC Oulu: 10 games · VPS: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)0.3

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.51.6

8/10Over 0.5league %939/10

4/10Over 1.5league %713/10

4/10Over 2.5league %431/10

2/10Over 3.5league %241/10

2/10Over 4.5league %131/10

4/10Both scoreleague %490/10

4/10Clean sheets4/10

4/10Failed to score7/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%26 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), AC Oulu win 276, 257 end level and VPS win 467. The actual result comes up 257 times in 1000.

%27 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.10 – 1.51 The score the chances deserved (xG): AC Oulu 1.10 – 1.51 VPS.

30 – 70 Possession (%): AC Oulu 30 – 70 VPS.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

AC Oulu · Veikkausliiga

VPS · Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu · All games

VPS · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at AC Oulu's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match