Nasaf – Al Kuwait: probabilities, statistics and live score

NasafSuper League · #4

0-1Wednesday, October 28

Al KuwaitPremier League · #1

Match events

NasafAl Kuwait

40'⚽Mohammad DahamAssist: Ali Pourdara
45'⇄Zafarmurod AbdurakhmatovOff: Golib Gaybullaev
45'⇄akramjon komilovOff: Sardorbek Bakhromov
45+1'Mohamed Jasim Marhoon
53'Arsène Zola
63'⇄Paata GhudushauriOff: Abbos Gulomov

Chances to win

Nasaf%52

Draw%25

Al Kuwait%23

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

NasafW2-1D0-0L1-2W2-1W4-1

Al KuwaitW6-2W7-0W3-1W7-1L

Last 2 meetings

0Nasaf won

1Draw

1Al Kuwait won

1.5
Goals per game1/2
Over 2.51/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Nasaf · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Al Kuwait · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Nasaf · last 1 at home6.0 corners, 3.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners1/1Over 4.5 corners1/1Over 5.5 corners1/1Over 0.5 cards1/1Over 1.5 cards1/1

Model chances

Nasaf over 3.5 corners

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%55

Nasaf win%52

Under 2.5%46

Not both score%45

Draw%25

Al Kuwait win%23

Why?

Nasaf · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Al Kuwait · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Nasaf: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Al Kuwait: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Nasaf scored 1.8 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Al Kuwait scored 2.4 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Nasaf: 10 games · Al Kuwait: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)2.5

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.0

2.5Total goals per gameleague 2.43.5

8/10Over 0.5league %888/10

6/10Over 1.5league %696/10

6/10Over 2.5league %435/10

1/10Over 3.5league %185/10

1/10Over 4.5league %144/10

5/10Both scoreleague %435/10

4/10Clean sheets5/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

Nasaf: 10 games · Al Kuwait: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)3.1

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.0

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.44.1

8/10Over 0.5league %889/10

7/10Over 1.5league %696/10

6/10Over 2.5league %436/10

2/10Over 3.5league %186/10

2/10Over 4.5league %145/10

6/10Both scoreleague %435/10

3/10Clean sheets5/10

3/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%33 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Nasaf win 400, 267 end level and Al Kuwait win 334. The actual result comes up 334 times in 1000.

Al Kuwait: win number 5 in a row.

%23 Our model's pre-match chance of an Al Kuwait win.

1.34 – 1.20 The score the chances deserved (xG): Nasaf 1.34 – 1.20 Al Kuwait.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Model chances

Referee

Nasaf · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Al Kuwait · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match