Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne Victory: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·A-League · Australia · Matchday 1

Wellington PhoenixA-League · #1

2-1Sunday, October 18

Melbourne VictoryA-League · #9

Match events

Wellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory

14'⚽C. PiperAssist: M. Sheridan
24'⚽C. Nduka
28'⇄N. WalkerOff: R. Duran
45'P. Ziereis
62'⇄K. JelacicOff: Clarismario
62'⇄T. LockyerOff: P. Ziereis
62'

Chances to win

Wellington Phoenix%29

Draw%26

Melbourne Victory%46

At a glance

Over 1.5

%57Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%60

Melbourne Victory win%46

Under 2.5%43

Not both score%40

Wellington Phoenix win%29

Draw%26

Why?

Wellington Phoenix: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Wellington PhoenixL0-4W2-1L0-2W1-0W2-1

Melbourne VictoryW3-0D0-0D1-1W2-0D0-0

Last 13 meetings

3Wellington Phoenix won

4Draw

6Melbourne Victory won

2.5
Goals per game5/13
Over 2.58/13
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Wellington Phoenix · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Melbourne Victory · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Wellington Phoenix · last 10 at home5.9 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Melbourne Victory · last 5 away5.8 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/5Over 4.5 corners5/5Over 5.5 corners3/5Over 0.5 cards5/5Over 1.5 cards2/5

Bench

Alby Kelly-Heald, Walter Scott, Anaru Cassidy, Riley Bidois, Nathan Walker, Tze-xuan Loke

Melbourne Victory · 4-4-2

25Jack Duncan

3Jason Davidson

4Philipp Ziereis

16Joshua Inserra

18Franco Lino

8Jordi Valadon

10Denis Genreau

11Clarismario

14Matthew Grimaldi

21Guillermo May

44Charles Nduka

Bench

Jack Warshawsky, Brendan Hamill, Tom Lockyer, Xavier Stella, Harrison Shillington, Keegan Jelacic, Michael Ghossaini

April 12, 2025 · A-League

Melbourne Victory – Wellington PhoenixFebruary 14, 2025 · A-League1-0

Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne VictoryNovember 24, 2024 · A-League1-0

Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne VictoryMay 18, 2024 · A-League1-1

Melbourne Victory – Wellington PhoenixMay 12, 2024 · A-League0-0

Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne VictoryApril 12, 2024 · A-League1-0

Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne VictoryJanuary 19, 2024 · A-League1-1

Melbourne Victory – Wellington PhoenixNovember 10, 2023 · A-League1-1

Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne VictoryApril 1, 2023 · A-League1-2

Melbourne Victory – Wellington PhoenixFebruary 3, 2023 · A-League3-1

W. ScottOff: J. McGarry

74'⇄X. StellaOff: G. May

74'⇄M. GhossainiOff: M. Grimaldi

77'⇄R. BidoisOff: L. Mitchell

77'⚽R. BidoisAssist: N. Walker

87'⇄B. HamillOff: C. Nduka

Statistics

38%Possession62%

9Total shots5

4Shots on target3

6Corners7

8Fouls6

2Offsides3

0Yellow cards2

2Saves2

71%Pass accuracy78%

Melbourne Victory: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Wellington Phoenix scored 1.6 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Melbourne Victory scored 1.6 and conceded 0.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Wellington Phoenix · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Wellington Phoenix: 9 games · Melbourne Victory: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.7Goals conceded (avg)0.7

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.91.9

9/9Over 0.5league %927/10

8/9Over 1.5league %927/10

6/9Over 2.5league %583/10

4/9Over 3.5league %252/10

2/9Over 4.5league %80/10

5/9Both scoreleague %833/10

2/9Clean sheets6/10

2/9Failed to score4/10

Wellington Phoenix: 10 games · Melbourne Victory: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.0Goals conceded (avg)0.6

2.5Total goals per gameleague 2.91.8

10/10Over 0.5league %927/10

9/10Over 1.5league %927/10

5/10Over 2.5league %583/10

1/10Over 3.5league %251/10

0/10Over 4.5league %80/10

4/10Both scoreleague %833/10

4/10Clean sheets6/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%28 Our model's pre-match chance of a Wellington Phoenix win.

7.7

Man of the match: Bill Tuiloma (Wellington Phoenix), rated 7.7.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 13 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Wellington Phoenix · A-League

Melbourne Victory · A-League

Wellington Phoenix · All games

Melbourne Victory · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Wellington Phoenix's ground

Last 13 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match