Auckland – Melbourne City: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·A-League · Australia · Matchday 1

AucklandA-League · #6

3-1Saturday, October 17

Melbourne CityA-League · #7

Match events

AucklandMelbourne City

32'S. Cosgrove
32'A. Behich
35'⚽L. Bayliss
42'⚽Q. MacNicolAssist: K. Rahmani
53'⚽L. Bayliss
67'⇄M. CaputoOff: A. Nabbout
75'⇄

Chances to win

Auckland%40

Draw%28

Melbourne City%33

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

AucklandL0-1W1-0W3-0D1-1D1-1

Melbourne CityL0-2W3-0D1-1L1-2W

Last 5 meetings

2Auckland won

2Draw

1Melbourne City won

3.0
Goals per game4/5
Over 2.53/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Auckland · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Melbourne City · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Auckland · last 10 at home6.7 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Melbourne City · last 6 away6.0 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/6Over 4.5 corners6/6Over 5.5 corners4/6Over 0.5 cards6/6Over 1.5 cards2/6

Bench

Joseph James Knowles, Callan Elliot, Ronan Wynne, Daniel Normann, Van Fitzharris, Jonty Bidois

Melbourne City · 4-3-3

1Macklin Freke

2Harrison Delbridge

4Liam Bonetig

14Besian Kutleshi

16Aziz Behich

13Nathaniel Atkinson

19Quinn MacNicol

24Kavian Rahmani

11Awer Mabil

15Andrew Nabbout

23Medin Memeti

Bench

James Nieuwenhuizen, Peter Antoniou, Lawrence Wong, Mathew Leckie, Max Caputo, Takeshi Kanamori

Melbourne City – AucklandDecember 15, 2024 · A-League2-2

M. LeckieOff: B. Kutleshi

75'⇄L. WongOff: Q. MacNicol

80'⇄V. FitzharrisOff: L. Bayliss

85'⚽L. BrookAssist: F. De Vries

88'⇄D. NormannOff: J. Brimmer

88'⇄I. PrinsOff: L. Brook

90'⇄C. ElliotOff: S. Cosgrove

Statistics

44%Possession56%

10Total shots14

3Shots on target4

3Corners4

10Fouls9

2Offsides3

1Yellow cards1

3Saves1

71%Pass accuracy79%

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%51

Under 2.5%49

Not both score%45

Auckland win%40

Melbourne City win%33

Draw%28

Why?

Auckland · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Melbourne City · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

Auckland: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Melbourne City: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
Auckland scored 1.4 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Melbourne City scored 1.2 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Auckland: 10 games · Melbourne City: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.5Total goals per gameleague 2.82.4

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

7/10Over 1.5league %878/10

5/10Over 2.5league %604/10

3/10Over 3.5league %202/10

0/10Over 4.5league %71/10

6/10Both scoreleague %735/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Auckland: 10 games · Melbourne City: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.82.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

7/10Over 1.5league %8710/10

4/10Over 2.5league %606/10

3/10Over 3.5league %202/10

1/10Over 4.5league %71/10

6/10Both scoreleague %737/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

8.6

Man of the match: Lachlan Bayliss (Auckland), rated 8.6.

%40 Our model's pre-match chance of a Auckland win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Auckland's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Auckland · A-League

Melbourne City · A-League

Auckland · All games

Melbourne City · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match