Farense – Penafiel: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Segunda Liga · Portugal · Matchday 8

FarenseDivision2 · #5

1-4Saturday, October 24

PenafielDivision2 · #3

Match events

FarensePenafiel

4'⚽Ricardo SchutteAssist: João Pinto
6'Pedro Sá
8'Nelson Oliveira
11'⚽Ricardo Schutte
14'⚽Juanda Fuentes
38'VARJoao·Resende
45+3'

Chances to win

Farense%47

Draw%28

Penafiel%25

At a glance

Over 1.5

%45Over 2.5

%50Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Not both score%50

Both score%50

Farense win%47

Over 2.5%45

Draw%28

Penafiel win%25

Why?

Farense: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

FarenseW3-0W2-1W4-0W1-0D0-0

PenafielL0-1L1-2W2-1W2-1W4-1

Last 9 meetings

4Farense won

4Draw

1Penafiel won

2.8
Goals per game5/9
Over 2.56/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Farense · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Penafiel · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Farense · last 3 at home6.3 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/3Over 4.5 corners2/3Over 5.5 corners2/3Over 0.5 cards3/3Over 1.5 cards2/3

Penafiel · last 2 away8.5 corners, 3.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners

Bench

Eric Puerto, João Miguel, Jorge Meré, M. Ramon, Francisco Varela, Davo, Claudio

Penafiel – FarenseMarch 19, 2022 · Segunda Liga1-3

Farense – PenafielNovember 1, 2021 · Segunda Liga2-2

Penafiel – FarenseJanuary 12, 2020 · Segunda Liga3-0

Farense – PenafielApril 19, 2019 · Segunda Liga1-1

Penafiel – FarenseDecember 23, 2018 · Segunda Liga2-3

46'⇄francisco varelaOff: Juanda Fuentes

46'⇄Joseph N'DuquidiOff: Claudio Falcão

46'⇄Bruno Miguel Vicente dos SantosOff: Nelson Oliveira

46'⇄Gabriel BarbosaOff: Joao·Resende

62'⇄Derick PoloniOff: toni herrero

62'⇄Miguel meninoOff: Sarpreet Singh

65'⚽André Candeias

67'⇄Antonio David Álvarez ReyOff: Ricardo Schutte

83'⇄Joao MiguelOff: Jaime Sánchez

83'⇄Claudio MendesOff: Max Svensson

87'⚽Claudio Mendes

90+1'⇄Tomás TeixeiraOff: João Pinto

Statistics

61%Possession39%

14Total shots14

7Shots on target5

8Corners1

4Yellow cards1

1Red cards0

Penafiel: 2 or fewer goals in 2 of their last 10 away matches.

Farense scored 1.6 and conceded 0.6 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Penafiel scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Farense · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Farense: 10 games · Penafiel: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)2.0

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.43.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

8/10Over 1.5league %719/10

6/10Over 2.5league %479/10

2/10Over 3.5league %214/10

1/10Over 4.5league %63/10

6/10Both scoreleague %448/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Farense: 10 games · Penafiel: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)2.0

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.0

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.43.0

9/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

8/10Over 1.5league %718/10

7/10Over 2.5league %477/10

3/10Over 3.5league %213/10

1/10Over 4.5league %62/10

6/10Both scoreleague %446/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Farense: a 5-match unbeaten run ended here.

%25 Our model's pre-match chance of an Penafiel win.

8 – 1 Corners: Farense 8 – 1 Penafiel.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Farense · Segunda Liga

Penafiel · Segunda Liga

Farense · All games

Penafiel · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Farense's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match