Holstein Kiel – Hertha BSC: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·2. Bundesliga · Germany · Matchday 8

Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga · #14

0-0Friday, October 16

Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga · #1

Match events

Holstein KielHertha BSC

34'Deyovaisio Zeefuik
38'Sebastian Schonlau
50'⇄David ZecOff: Sebastian Schonlau
64'⇄Gyan de RegtOff: Guillermo Balzi
64'⇄Ikem UgohOff: Till Wiese
68'David Zec
69'

Chances to win

Holstein Kiel%36

Draw%24

Hertha BSC%40

At a glance

Over 1.5

%67Over 2.5

%68Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%67Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%68

Hertha BSC win%40

Holstein Kiel win%36

Under 2.5%33

Not both score%32

Draw%24

Why?

Holstein Kiel: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Holstein KielL0-1D1-1L0-1D2-2L0-2

Hertha BSCW2-1W2-1W3-1W2-1W5-3

Last 4 meetings

1Holstein Kiel won

1Draw

2Hertha BSC won

2.8
Goals per game2/4
Over 2.52/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Holstein Kiel · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Hertha BSC · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Holstein Kiel · last 10 at home7.6 corners, 3.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners9/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards

Hertha BSC · last 10 away5.0 corners, 2.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

Konstantin Heide, T. Goller, M. Pedersen, P. Klemens, S. Gouram, Selim Telib, L. Schuler, Farid Alfa-Ruprecht, Jelani Isi Ndi

Jan Luca SchulerOff: Sebastian Gronning

69'⇄Mads Valentin PedersenOff: Julian Eitschberger

76'⇄Farid Alfa-RuprechtOff: Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

82'⇄Giorgi KvilitaiaOff: Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen

82'⇄Mark Richter MontserratOff: Adrian Kapralik

89'⇄Soufian gouramOff: Oluwaseun Adewumi

Statistics

43%Possession57%

0.61Expected goals1.59

6Total shots15

3Shots on target7

1Corners7

18Fouls14

2Offsides2

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

6Saves3

Hertha BSC: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Holstein Kiel scored 1.5 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Hertha BSC scored 2.0 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Holstein Kiel · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Hertha BSC · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Holstein Kiel: 10 games · Hertha BSC: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.4Total goals per gameleague 3.03.0

8/10Over 0.5league %949/10

8/10Over 1.5league %767/10

5/10Over 2.5league %574/10

3/10Over 3.5league %333/10

0/10Over 4.5league %162/10

5/10Both scoreleague %576/10

5/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Holstein Kiel: 10 games · Hertha BSC: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)2.2

1.0Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.1Total goals per gameleague 3.03.1

9/10Over 0.5league %949/10

7/10Over 1.5league %768/10

3/10Over 2.5league %576/10

2/10Over 3.5league %333/10

0/10Over 4.5league %162/10

4/10Both scoreleague %577/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%25 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Holstein Kiel win 140, 247 end level and Hertha BSC win 612. The actual result comes up 247 times in 1000.

%24 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.61 – 1.59 The score the chances deserved (xG): Holstein Kiel 0.61 – 1.59 Hertha BSC.

6 – 15 Shots: Holstein Kiel 6 – 15 Hertha BSC.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga

Hertha BSC · 2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel · All games

Hertha BSC · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Holstein Kiel's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match