Rio Ave – Nacional: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Primeira Liga · Portugal · Matchday 8

Rio AvePrimeira Liga · #16

3-2Sunday, October 11

NacionalPrimeira Liga · #15

Match events

Rio AveNacional

32'⚽N. KaderAssist: Chico Gonçalves
39'⚽Sebastian Clemensen
50'João Tomé Baptista
54'João Tomé Baptista
57'⚽Diogo BezerraAssist: Sebastian Clemensen
59'⚽N. Kader
63'⇄

Chances to win

Rio Ave%43

Draw%28

Nacional%29

At a glance

Over 1.5

%49Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%51

Over 2.5%49

Not both score%46

Rio Ave win%43

Nacional win%29

Draw%28

Why?

Rio Ave: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Rio AveL0-1D3-3L0-4L0-4W2-0

NacionalL0-4L1-3L0-2L2-3L0-1

Last 4 meetings

1Rio Ave won

2Draw

1Nacional won

3.8
Goals per game3/4
Over 2.53/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Rio Ave · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Nacional · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Rio Ave · last 10 at home6.0 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners5/10

Nacional · last 10 away3.5 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

33Francisco Gonçalves

Bench

João Gonçalves, Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz, Ivanildo Fernandes, M. Jensen, Miguel Baeza, S. Gavriel, Joel da Silva, A. Obando, F. Nava

Off: Miguel Patricío

63'⇄Roland GalcikOff: Sebastian Clemensen

68'⇄Fernando Nava OrtegaOff: Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior

68'⇄Miguel BaezaOff: Chiheb Labidi

69'VARJalen BlesaPenalty confirmed

72'⚽Jalen BlesaPenalty

76'⇄Diogo NascimentoOff: Diogo Bezerra

76'⇄Simón GarcíaOff: Malik Sellouki

78'⇄Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroOff: Jalen Blesa

78'⇄Allen ObandoOff: Matchoi Djaló

81'⇄Joel da SilvaOff: N. Kader

81'⇄Stavros GavrielOff: Song Min-kyu

Statistics

56%Possession44%

1.74Expected goals1.28

11Total shots13

7Shots on target5

8Corners8

7Fouls17

0Offsides3

2Yellow cards0

1Red cards0

3Saves3

Nacional: both sides scored in 3 of their last 10 away matches.

Rio Ave scored 1.0 and conceded 2.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Nacional scored 0.6 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Rio Ave · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Rio Ave: 10 games · Nacional: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)0.7

2.4Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.6Total goals per gameleague 2.72.2

9/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

9/10Over 1.5league %747/10

8/10Over 2.5league %552/10

6/10Over 3.5league %352/10

3/10Over 4.5league %101/10

6/10Both scoreleague %493/10

1/10Clean sheets1/10

4/10Failed to score6/10

Rio Ave: 10 games · Nacional: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.0

2.1Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.72.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %747/10

5/10Over 2.5league %555/10

5/10Over 3.5league %355/10

2/10Over 4.5league %102/10

2/10Both scoreleague %494/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

6/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%48 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Rio Ave win 482, 235 end level and Nacional win 282. The actual result comes up 482 times in 1000.

1.74 – 1.28 The score the chances deserved (xG): Rio Ave 1.74 – 1.28 Nacional.

8.5

Man of the match: N. Kader (Nacional), rated 8.5.

%43 Our model's pre-match chance of a Rio Ave win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Rio Ave · Primeira Liga

Nacional · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave · All games

Nacional · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Rio Ave's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match