The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.
%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed
Other scenarios
Over 2.5%52
Under 2.5%48
Arouca win%45
Not both score%44
Estrela win%28
Draw%27
Why?
Arouca: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
AroucaD2-2L1-2D0-0W2-1L0-2
EstrelaL0-2D3-3W2-1D2-2W3-2
Last 6 meetings
3Arouca won
1Draw
2Estrela won
2.3 Goals per game3/6 Over 2.53/6 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Arouca · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.
Estrela · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 2 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Arouca · last 10 at home3.6 corners, 3.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners
Referee
L. Filipe4.6 cards a match in 16 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Arouca · Primeira Liga
5W 3D 2LScored 18 · conceded 112.5 Üst 7/10KG 6/10
Estrela · Primeira Liga
2W 6D 2LScored 18 · conceded 192.5 Üst 8/10KG 8/10
Arouca · All games
5W 3D 2LScored 18 · conceded 112.5 Üst 7/10KG 6/10
Estrela · All games
2W 6D 2LScored 18 · conceded 192.5 Üst 8/10KG 8/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Arouca · 4-2-3-1
12I. de Arruabarrena
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
18O. Lebedenko
28Tiago Esgaio
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
8T. Fukui
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Bench
J. Vinarčík, L. Shahar, Diogo Monteiro, B. Popović, Mario Climent, Lee Hyun-Ju, Mateo Flores, Pedro Santos, F. Mayulu, G. Rukavina, D. Nandín, B. Mansilla
Estrela · 4-2-3-1
24Léo Linck
This fixture at Arouca's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 3
2Arouca won
1Draw
0Estrela won
Arouca last won here on Apr 19, 2026: Arouca 1-0 Estrela.Estrela won none of the last 3 here.0.7 goals a game here · over 2.5 0/3 · BTTS 0/3
Last 6 meetings
3Arouca won
1Draw
2Estrela won
2.3 Goals per game3/6 Over 2.53/6 Both score
Previous meetings
Arouca – EstrelaApril 19, 2026 · Primeira Liga1-0
Estrela – AroucaDecember 7, 2025 · Primeira Liga3-1
Arouca – EstrelaApril 19, 2025 · Primeira Liga1-0
Estrela – AroucaDecember 9, 2024 · Primeira Liga2-1
0/10
Over 0.5 cards10/10
Over 1.5 cards9/10
Estrela · last 10 away3.7 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards7/10
Diogo Pinto, L. Mincarelli Davin, Bernardo Schappo, Jefferson Encada, A. Chernev, K. Höög Jansson, T. Moustier, E. Pedro Vanga, B. Souza, R. Muteba, H. Poniewas, Alisson
Arouca – EstrelaMay 5, 2024 · Primeira Liga0-0
Estrela – AroucaDecember 28, 2023 · Primeira Liga1-4
⇄
Pedro SantosOff: Pablo Gozálbez
61'⇄Beni SouzaOff: Ianis Stoica
62'⇄Jefferson EncadaOff: Max Scholze
62'Pedro Santos
65'⇄Dylan NandínOff: Iván Barbero
65'⇄Gabrijel RukavinaOff: Näis Djouahra
79'⇄Lee Hyun-ju Off: Taichi Fukui
80'⇄Brian MansillaOff: Alfonso Trezza
81'Taichi Fukui
82'⇄Emerson VangaOff: Eddy Doué
88'Jose Fontán
90+1'⇄Alisson SouzaOff: Lovro Zvonarek
90+1'⇄Kevin Hoog JanssonOff: Santiago Serra
Statistics
37%Possession63%
0.78Expected goals1.48
7Total shots11
3Shots on target2
5Corners6
10Fouls7
2Offsides3
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves2
Estrela: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
Arouca scored 2.3 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Estrela scored 1.4 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.
Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.