Academico Viseu – Estoril: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Primeira Liga · Portugal · Matchday 8

Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga · #6

2-1Saturday, October 10

EstorilPrimeira Liga · #18

Match events

Academico ViseuEstoril

27'Jordan Holsgrove
29'⚽Cihan KahramanAssist: Anthony Correia
31'Cihan Kahraman
45'⇄Nail OmerovicOff: Milan Robin
56'⚽Rafik GuitaneAssist: João Carvalho
60'Soufiane Messeguem
67'

Chances to win

Academico Viseu%43

Draw%27

Estoril%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%51

Under 2.5%49

Not both score%45

Academico Viseu win%43

Estoril win%30

Draw%27

Why?

Academico Viseu: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Academico ViseuW2-0W2-1W1-0L0-3D2-2

EstorilL1-2L0-1D0-0L1-2L0-2

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Academico Viseu · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Estoril · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Academico Viseu · last 8 at home4.3 corners, 2.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/8Over 4.5 corners4/8Over 5.5 corners2/8Over 0.5 cards

Estoril · last 10 away3.2 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners1/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

M. Turk, Fernando Medrano, Ferro, Tiago Parreira Parente, Pedro Carvalho, J. Arnolin, Tiago Brito, A. Camblan, N. Omerović, Peixinho

Alejandro MestanzaOff: Cihan Kahraman

67'⇄Nils MortimerOff: Lorougnon Gohi

74'⇄Pedro CarvalhoOff: Ricard Sanchez Sendra

74'⇄Tiago ParenteOff: Roko Jurišić

83'⇄Alvaro ZamoraOff: João Guilherme

88'⚽Soufiane MesseguemAssist: Alejandro Mestanza

89'⇄André Tiago Ramos das NevesOff: Xavier Sintes Egea

90+4'⇄Cristian FerreiraOff: Soufiane Messeguem

90+4'⇄Paulo Rafael Pereira AraujoOff: André Clóvis

Statistics

51%Possession49%

0.81Expected goals1.42

15Total shots15

6Shots on target9

3Corners5

24Fouls9

1Offsides1

3Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

8Saves3

Estoril: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Academico Viseu scored 1.5 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Estoril scored 0.6 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Academico Viseu: 10 games · Estoril: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)0.8

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.2

8/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

6/10Over 1.5league %747/10

6/10Over 2.5league %553/10

2/10Over 3.5league %351/10

0/10Over 4.5league %101/10

4/10Both scoreleague %496/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

5/10Failed to score3/10

Academico Viseu: 10 games · Estoril: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)0.6

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.5Total goals per gameleague 2.72.2

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

7/10Over 1.5league %748/10

6/10Over 2.5league %554/10

2/10Over 3.5league %351/10

0/10Over 4.5league %100/10

5/10Both scoreleague %496/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%21 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Academico Viseu win 214, 272 end level and Estoril win 514. The actual result comes up 214 times in 1000.

88'

Soufiane Messeguem decided it in minute 88.

Academico Viseu: win number 4 in a row.

0.81 – 1.42 The score the chances deserved (xG): Academico Viseu 0.81 – 1.42 Estoril.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga

Estoril · Primeira Liga

Academico Viseu · All games

Estoril · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match