By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
FSV Mainz 05 · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
Bayer Leverkusen · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
FSV Mainz 05 · last 10 at home6.2 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners5/10
Referee
Max Burda5.7 cards a match in 10 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.Go Premium
Missing players
FSV Mainz 05
D. Kohr
This season 2 games · 0 goals · 1 assists · Foot Injury
Silas
No games this season · Broken shinbone
R. Zentner
This season 4 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Hand Injury
S. Widmer
This season 6 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Knee Injury
P. Nebel
This season 4 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury
O. Ruoppi
This season 4 games · 0 goals · 2 assists · Knee Injury
Bayer Leverkusen
G. Doue
This season 1 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Calf Injury
M. Culbreath
No games this season · Foot Injury
K. Eichhorn
No games this season · Illness
C. Kofane
This season 6 games · 3 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury
Starting line-ups
FSV Mainz 05
1A. Schwolow
2P. Mwene
This fixture at FSV Mainz 05's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 4
0FSV Mainz 05 won
1Draw
3Bayer Leverkusen won
FSV Mainz 05 won none of the last 4 here.Bayer Leverkusen last won here on Oct 18, 2025: FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen.4.3 goals a game here · over 2.5 4/4 · BTTS 2/4
The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.
%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Both score%66
Bayer Leverkusen win%44
Under 2.5%36
Not both score%34
FSV Mainz 05 win%31
Draw%25
Why?
FSV Mainz 05 · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10
Bayer Leverkusen · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10
FSV Mainz 05: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.
Bayer Leverkusen: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
FSV Mainz 05 scored 1.4 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Bayer Leverkusen scored 1.9 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.
Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.
FSV Mainz 05: 10 games · Bayer Leverkusen: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.6Goals scored (avg)2.2
1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.5
3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.53.7
9/10Over 0.5league %9110/10
8/10Over 1.5league %809/10
6/10Over 2.5league %708/10
5/10Over 3.5league %536/10
3/10Over 4.5league %342/10
6/10Both scoreleague %575/10
3/10Clean sheets4/10
2/10Failed to score1/10
FSV Mainz 05: 10 games · Bayer Leverkusen: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.6Goals scored (avg)2.5
1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.5
4.5Total goals per gameleague 3.54.0
9/10Over 0.5league %9110/10
8/10Over 1.5league %8010/10
7/10Over 2.5league %707/10
7/10Over 3.5league %535/10
6/10Over 4.5league %343/10
5/10Both scoreleague %575/10
4/10Clean sheets4/10
2/10Failed to score1/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%20 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), FSV Mainz 05 win 630, 166 end level and Bayer Leverkusen win 204. The actual result comes up 204 times in 1000.
2.91 – 1.68 The score the chances deserved (xG): FSV Mainz 05 2.91 – 1.68 Bayer Leverkusen.
9.1 Man of the match: A. Caci (FSV Mainz 05), rated 9.1.
%44 Our model's pre-match chance of an Bayer Leverkusen win.
FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · #8
Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · #6