Elche – Celta Vigo: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·La Liga · Spain · Matchday 8

ElchePrimera División · #16

0-0Sunday, October 11

Celta VigoPrimera División · #9

Match events

ElcheCelta Vigo

37'Yoel Lago
59'Javier Rueda García
59'⇄Abiel Alessio OsorioOff: Tete Morente
60'⇄Borja IglesiasOff: Pablo Durán Fernández
71'⇄Williot SwedbergOff: Ferran Jutglà
71'⇄Couhaib DriouechOff: Hugo Alvarez Antunez

Chances to win

Elche%33

Draw%29

Celta Vigo%38

At a glance

Over 1.5

%49Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%51

Over 2.5%49

Not both score%46

Celta Vigo win%38

Elche win%33

Draw%29

Why?

Elche: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

ElcheW3-1L2-3D1-1L2-3L2-3

Celta VigoW5-0L0-1D1-1D1-1D0-0

Last 4 meetings

1Elche won

0Draw

3Celta Vigo won

2.3
Goals per game2/4
Over 2.52/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Elche · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Celta Vigo · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Elche · last 10 at home5.5 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Celta Vigo · last 10 away2.8 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

Alejandro Iturbe, Bigas, K. Lomónaco, Matia Barzic Gutiérrez, F. Buonanotte, Martim Neto, Josan, E. Ponce, G. Diangana, L. Cepeda, A. Osorio, Alvaro Padilla

Celta Vigo · 3-4-3

13I. Radu

3Marcos Alonso

15Álvaro Núñez

18Yoel Lago

6I. Moriba

14Aleix Febas

17Javi Rueda

22Javi Galán

9Ferran Jutglà

11Pablo Durán

23Hugo Álvarez

Bench

A. Bayındır, Iván Villar, A. Faye, Sergio Carreira, Javi Rodríguez, S. Cáceres, H. Burcio, Borja Iglesias, Iago Aspas, Hugo González, W. Swedberg, C. Driouech

71'⇄Sergio Carreira VilarinoOff: Javi Galán

71'⇄Martim NetoOff: Gonzalo Villar

71'⇄Lucas CepedaOff: Fernando Niño Rodríguez

83'⇄Hugo BurcioOff: Aleix Febas

87'⇄Facundo BuonanotteOff: Thomas Lemar

Statistics

66%Possession34%

0.84Expected goals0.34

13Total shots7

2Shots on target0

5Corners2

19Fouls21

0Offsides3

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

0Saves2

Celta Vigo: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Elche scored 1.4 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Celta Vigo scored 0.7 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Elche · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Elche: 10 games · Celta Vigo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)0.6

1.7Goals conceded (avg)0.9

3.1Total goals per gameleague 3.01.5

9/10Over 0.5league %917/10

7/10Over 1.5league %765/10

6/10Over 2.5league %563/10

5/10Over 3.5league %360/10

4/10Over 4.5league %220/10

6/10Both scoreleague %584/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

2/10Failed to score5/10

Elche: 10 games · Celta Vigo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.0

3.3Total goals per gameleague 3.02.2

8/10Over 0.5league %918/10

8/10Over 1.5league %767/10

7/10Over 2.5league %565/10

6/10Over 3.5league %361/10

4/10Over 4.5league %221/10

6/10Both scoreleague %585/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%40 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Elche win 457, 402 end level and Celta Vigo win 142. The actual result comes up 402 times in 1000.

%29 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.84 – 0.34 The score the chances deserved (xG): Elche 0.84 – 0.34 Celta Vigo.

66 – 34 Possession (%): Elche 66 – 34 Celta Vigo.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Elche · La Liga

Celta Vigo · La Liga

Elche · All games

Celta Vigo · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Elche's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match