Eibar – Mallorca: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Segunda División · Spain · Matchday 10

EibarSegunda · #3

1-1Saturday, October 17

MallorcaSegunda · #7

Match events

EibarMallorca

19'Antonio José Raíllo Arenas
45'⇄Javier Martón AnsóOff: Jon Bautista
45'⇄Peru NolaskoainOff: Unai Elgezabal Udondo
52'⚽Adrian FuentesAssist: Adrian Liso
54'Zito Luvumbo
63'⇄Guille FernándezOff: Pablo Torre

Chances to win

Eibar%38

Draw%30

Mallorca%32

At a glance

Over 1.5

%47Over 2.5

%53Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%53Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%53

Over 2.5%47

Not both score%47

Eibar win%38

Mallorca win%32

Draw%30

Why?

Eibar: 2 or fewer goals in 3 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

EibarL1-3W3-1W3-2W2-1W4-0

MallorcaW3-1D0-0L0-1W1-0W2-0

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Eibar · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Mallorca · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Eibar · last 10 at home4.1 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Mallorca · last 10 away3.6 corners, 3.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

L. Bergström, Iván Cuéllar, Toni Lato, David López, A. Souhmahoro, M. Calatayud, Guille Fernández, Darder, Abdón Prats, Zito Luvumbo, A. Buksa, J. Kalumba

PejiñoOff: jon guruzeta

71'⇄Antonio Latorre GruesoOff: Alberto Moreno

71'⇄Sergi DarderOff: Zito Luvumbo

71'⇄Lucas Nuñez RamirezOff: Ander Madariaga Susaeta

76'⇄Markel Arana MateoOff: Anaitz Arbilla

84'✕Javier Martón AnsóMissed penalty

84'⇄Miguel Calatayud GarcíaOff: Alex Sala

85'⇄Adam BuksaOff: Adrian Fuentes

90+4'⚽Iván GilPenalty

Statistics

53%Possession47%

2.51Expected goals2.03

13Total shots16

6Shots on target5

5Corners7

8Fouls18

1Offsides1

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards1

4Saves5

Mallorca: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Eibar scored 2.0 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Mallorca scored 0.7 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Mallorca · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Eibar: 10 games · Mallorca: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)0.6

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.1

3.1Total goals per gameleague 2.71.7

10/10Over 0.5league %938/10

9/10Over 1.5league %746/10

6/10Over 2.5league %502/10

3/10Over 3.5league %321/10

2/10Over 4.5league %170/10

6/10Both scoreleague %514/10

4/10Clean sheets4/10

0/10Failed to score4/10

Eibar: 10 games · Mallorca: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.1Goals conceded (avg)0.6

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.71.7

10/10Over 0.5league %938/10

9/10Over 1.5league %746/10

6/10Over 2.5league %502/10

4/10Over 3.5league %321/10

1/10Over 4.5league %170/10

6/10Both scoreleague %513/10

3/10Clean sheets5/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%19 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Eibar win 492, 189 end level and Mallorca win 319. The actual result comes up 189 times in 1000.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.51 – 2.03 The score the chances deserved (xG): Eibar 2.51 – 2.03 Mallorca.

7.5

Man of the match: Arnau Tenas (Mallorca), rated 7.5.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Eibar · Segunda División

Mallorca · Segunda División

Eibar · All games

Mallorca · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match