Crewe – Barnet: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·League Two · England · Matchday 14

CreweLeague Two · #4

1-1Saturday, October 31

BarnetLeague Two · #2

Match events

CreweBarnet

33'Reece Hutchinson
34'⚽Tom Knowles
36'Nikola Tavares
45'Nnamdi Ofoborh
60'⇄Jake ReevesOff: Nnamdi Ofoborh
61'⇄J MaskellOff: Tom Knowles
61'

Chances to win

Crewe%32

Draw%25

Barnet%43

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%63Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%63

Barnet win%43

Under 2.5%40

Not both score%38

Crewe win%32

Draw%25

Why?

Crewe: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

CreweL1-5L0-2W3-2W1-0D2-2

BarnetW3-1D1-1L1-3W2-1W3-1

Last 8 meetings

3Crewe won

2Draw

3Barnet won

2.5
Goals per game4/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Crewe · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Barnet · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Crewe · last 10 at home5.3 corners, 1.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Barnet · last 10 away5.3 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

T. Ashby-Hammond, Z. Williams, K. Smith, J. Reeves, J. Maskell, D. Ajayi

Crewe – BarnetMay 6, 2017 · League Two

Barnet – CreweNovember 19, 2016 · League Two0-0

Barnet – CreweJanuary 28, 2012 · League Two2-0

Crewe – BarnetSeptember 10, 2011 · League Two3-1

Zac WilliamsOff: Romoney Crichlow-Noble

64'⇄Joe WhiteOff: Conor Thomas

64'⇄Adrien thibautOff: Charlie McNeill

64'⇄Calum·AgiusOff: Joel Tabiner

76'⇄Damola AjayiOff: Charlie Lakin

80'⇄Isiah Noel WilliamsOff: Kabongo Tshimanga

85'⚽Zac WilliamsOwn goal

Statistics

49%Possession51%

0.86Expected goals0.51

9Total shots9

2Shots on target2

3Corners5

13Fouls18

5Offsides2

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

1Saves2

Barnet: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Crewe scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Barnet scored 2.2 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Crewe · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Barnet · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Crewe: 10 games · Barnet: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.8

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.2

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.63.0

9/10Over 0.5league %929/10

8/10Over 1.5league %769/10

5/10Over 2.5league %457/10

4/10Over 3.5league %303/10

2/10Over 4.5league %141/10

8/10Both scoreleague %569/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Crewe: 10 games · Barnet: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.9

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.3Total goals per gameleague 2.63.2

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

9/10Over 1.5league %769/10

5/10Over 2.5league %457/10

5/10Over 3.5league %305/10

3/10Over 4.5league %141/10

8/10Both scoreleague %569/10

1/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%38 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Crewe win 416, 378 end level and Barnet win 205. The actual result comes up 378 times in 1000.

%25 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.86 – 0.51 The score the chances deserved (xG): Crewe 0.86 – 0.51 Barnet.

7.5

Man of the match: T. Knowles (Barnet), rated 7.5.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Crewe · League Two

Barnet · League Two

Crewe · All games

Barnet · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Crewe's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match