Gillingham – Grimsby: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·League Two · England · Matchday 13

GillinghamLeague Two · #8

1-4Saturday, October 24

GrimsbyLeague Two · #6

Match events

GillinghamGrimsby

7'⚽Harvey Rodgers
24'Garath McCleary
37'⚽Ronan Chapman HaleAssist: Garath McCleary
43'Géza Dávid Turi
51'Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
53'Armani Little
54'

Chances to win

Gillingham%28

Draw%27

Grimsby%45

At a glance

Over 1.5

%53Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

GillinghamD1-1L1-3W4-3W4-1D0-0

GrimsbyD2-2L0-2L0-1D0-0L

Last 8 meetings

1Gillingham won

3Draw

4Grimsby won

2.3
Goals per game2/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Gillingham · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Grimsby · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Gillingham · last 10 at home4.3 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Grimsby · last 10 away5.4 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards4/10

Bench

H. Cartwright, Cian Doyle, Ryley Reynolds, F. Cartwright, M. Shelton, S. Finch, J. Andrews

Gillingham – GrimsbyMarch 16, 2024 · League Two1-1

Grimsby – GillinghamSeptember 2, 2023 · League Two2-0

Gillingham – GrimsbyFebruary 14, 2023 · League Two2-1

Grimsby – GillinghamSeptember 13, 2022 · League Two1-1

55'⇄Sonny FinchOff: Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor

63'⚽Géza Dávid Turi

66'⇄Tom EavesOff: Garath McCleary

67'⇄S. KendallOff: Nick Freeman

70'⚽Sonny FinchAssist: Géza Dávid Turi

72'⇄Mark SheltonOff: Géza Dávid Turi

72'⇄Josh andrewsOff: Iwan Morgan

79'⇄Ethan·ColemanOff: Armani Little

81'⇄Cian DoyleOff: Kieran Green

81'⇄Finn CartwrightOff: Jamie Walker

Statistics

55%Possession45%

0.57Expected goals2.94

10Total shots21

2Shots on target9

4Corners6

16Fouls11

2Offsides2

3Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

5Saves1

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%53

Under 2.5%47

Grimsby win%45

Not both score%43

Gillingham win%28

Draw%27

Why?

Grimsby · last 10 away: both scored 8 times8/10

Gillingham: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 home matches.
Grimsby: both sides scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
Gillingham scored 1.3 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Grimsby scored 1.3 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Gillingham: 10 games · Grimsby: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.9

9/10Over 0.5league %939/10

9/10Over 1.5league %778/10

6/10Over 2.5league %477/10

3/10Over 3.5league %314/10

3/10Over 4.5league %141/10

5/10Both scoreleague %588/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

Gillingham: 10 games · Grimsby: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.6

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.7Total goals per gameleague 2.73.0

9/10Over 0.5league %939/10

9/10Over 1.5league %778/10

8/10Over 2.5league %476/10

5/10Over 3.5league %313/10

4/10Over 4.5league %142/10

7/10Both scoreleague %586/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Grimsby: a 5-match wait for a win is over.

%84 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Gillingham win 49, 108 end level and Grimsby win 843. The actual result comes up 843 times in 1000.

0.60 – 2.94 The score the chances deserved (xG): Gillingham 0.60 – 2.94 Grimsby.

8 – 21 Shots: Gillingham 8 – 21 Grimsby.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Gillingham's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Gillingham · League Two

Grimsby · League Two

Gillingham · All games

Grimsby · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match