Rubin – Fakel: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier League · Russia · Matchday 13

RubinPremier League · #11

1-0Saturday, October 31

FakelPremier League · #16

Match events

RubinFakel

11'Ilnur Alshin
25'Aleksandr Koksharov
35'Ugochukwu Iwu
38'⚽Eddie Salcedo
57'Ilya Samoshnikov
58'⇄Bogdan JočićOff: Ugochukwu Iwu
58'⇄

Chances to win

Rubin%47

Draw%30

Fakel%23

At a glance

Over 1.5

%38Over 2.5

%44Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%62Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Not both score%56

Rubin win%47

Both score%44

Over 2.5%38

Draw%30

Fakel win%23

Why?

Rubin: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

RubinL0-1L0-2L0-4L1-4L0-1

FakelD0-0L0-1W2-1W2-0L0-5

Last 7 meetings

4Rubin won

2Draw

1Fakel won

2.3
Goals per game2/7
Over 2.52/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Rubin · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Fakel · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Rubin · last 7 at home4.4 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/7Over 4.5 corners3/7Over 5.5 corners2/7Over 0.5 cards

Fakel · last 6 away2.8 corners, 3.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/6Over 4.5 corners0/6Over 5.5 corners0/6Over 0.5 cards5/6Over 1.5 cards5/6

Bench

A. Nigmatullin, Ilya Ezhov, D. Maldonado, R. Bezrukov, A. Gritsaenko, I. Rozhkov, D. Kabutov, B. Jočić, N. Gripshi, J. Siwe, D. N. Motorin, D. Shabanhaxhaj

Fakel · 5-3-2

96I. Obukhov

10I. Alshin

17A. Kovalev

20I. Yurganov

40Clayton

53M. Bardachev

8A. Bagamaev

23V. Yakimov

97B. Magomedov

19B. Pusi

90A. Koksharov

Bench

D. Frolkin, V. Dorovskikh, H. El Mahasni, S. Magkeev, Y. Zhuravlev, K. Simonov, R. Netfullin, N. Giorgobiani, M. Turishchev, A. Gnapi Dable, A. Belyaev

Rubin – Fakel VoronezhNovember 26, 2023 · Premier League

Fakel Voronezh – RubinSeptember 25, 2023 · Premier League0-1

Rubin – Fakel VoronezhJanuary 20, 2022 · Friendlies Clubs4-4

Nazmi GripshiOff: Ulvi Babaev

61'⇄Axel GnapiOff: Aleksandr Koksharov

61'⇄Maksim TurishchevOff: Belajdi Pusi

67'⇄Ilya RozhkovOff: Ilya Samoshnikov

67'⇄Daniil MotorinOff: Eddie Salcedo

69'⇄Ravil NetfullinOff: Vyacheslav Yakimov

69'⇄Hodaifa El MhassaniOff: Ilnur Alshin

78'⇄Nikolay GiorgobianiOff: Butta Magomedov

90+3'⇄Denil MaldonadoOff: Ignacio Saavedra

Statistics

43%Possession57%

0.97Expected goals0.54

9Total shots8

3Shots on target2

2Corners4

15Fouls13

0Offsides1

4Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

2Saves2

Fakel: 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Rubin scored 1.0 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Fakel scored 1.3 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Rubin · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Rubin: 10 games · Fakel: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.72.8

9/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

8/10Over 1.5league %788/10

4/10Over 2.5league %546/10

4/10Over 3.5league %303/10

1/10Over 4.5league %151/10

7/10Both scoreleague %575/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score3/10

Rubin: 10 games · Fakel: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)0.8

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.5Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

8/10Over 1.5league %786/10

3/10Over 2.5league %544/10

3/10Over 3.5league %303/10

1/10Over 4.5league %151/10

6/10Both scoreleague %574/10

0/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score5/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Rubin: a 9-match wait for a win is over.

%45 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Rubin win 448, 353 end level and Fakel win 199. The actual result comes up 448 times in 1000.

0.97 – 0.54 The score the chances deserved (xG): Rubin 0.97 – 0.54 Fakel.

7.7

Man of the match: E. Salcedo (Rubin), rated 7.7.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Rubin · Premier League

Fakel · Premier League

Rubin · All games

Fakel · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Rubin's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match