Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·J1 League · Japan · Matchday 13

Fagiano OkayamaJ-League · #10

0-4Saturday, October 31

FC TokyoJ-League · #2

Match events

Fagiano OkayamaFC Tokyo

22'Haruka Motoyama
45+4'⚽Teruhito Nakagawa
46'⚽Teruhito Nakagawa
56'⇄Léo GaúchoOff: Eiji Miyamoto
56'⇄Towa YamaneOff: Haruka Motoyama
58'⇄Rio OmoriOff: Kashif Bangnagande
59'

Chances to win

Fagiano Okayama%25

Draw%26

FC Tokyo%49

At a glance

Over 1.5

%49Over 2.5

%52Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%51Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%52

Over 2.5%49

FC Tokyo win%49

Not both score%48

Draw%26

Fagiano Okayama win%25

Why?

Fagiano Okayama: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Fagiano OkayamaL1-2W2-0L0-3D3-3L1-2

FC TokyoW6-0D0-0W4-0L0-1W3-0

Last 2 meetings

1Fagiano Okayama won

0Draw

1FC Tokyo won

2.5
Goals per game1/2
Over 2.51/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Fagiano Okayama · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

FC Tokyo · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Fagiano Okayama · last 8 at home6.4 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/8Over 4.5 corners6/8Over 5.5 corners5/8Over 0.5 cards

FC Tokyo · last 8 away6.4 corners, 0.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/8Over 4.5 corners4/8Over 5.5 corners4/8Over 0.5 cards4/8Over 1.5 cards2/8

Bench

H. Tanaka, M. Morishige, R. Omori, K. Hashimoto, K. Suzuki, S. Homma, K. Tawaratsumida, F. Yamada, Dani Gómez

Dani GómezOff: Teruhito Nakagawa

63'⚽Dani GómezAssist: Shuto Nagano

67'⇄Masaya MatsumotoOff: Lucas Marcos Meireles

67'⇄Kota KawanoOff: Ataru Esaka

76'⇄Kota TawaratsumidaOff: Kein Sato

78'⇄Ryo TakeuchiOff: Kosuke Shirai

85'⇄Kento HashimotoOff: Hirokazu Ishihara

85'⇄Shion HommaOff: Soma Anzai

90+3'⚽Dani GómezAssist: Kota Tawaratsumida

Statistics

39%Possession61%

0.83Expected goals4.14

12Total shots21

4Shots on target8

8Corners5

6Fouls9

2Offsides2

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

4Saves4

FC Tokyo: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Fagiano Okayama scored 1.4 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

FC Tokyo scored 1.6 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Fagiano Okayama · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

FC Tokyo · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Fagiano Okayama: 10 games · FC Tokyo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.1Goals conceded (avg)0.7

2.5Total goals per gameleague 3.02.3

9/10Over 0.5league %949/10

7/10Over 1.5league %807/10

5/10Over 2.5league %574/10

2/10Over 3.5league %363/10

2/10Over 4.5league %180/10

4/10Both scoreleague %573/10

5/10Clean sheets5/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Fagiano Okayama: 10 games · FC Tokyo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)2.4

1.6Goals conceded (avg)0.1

3.2Total goals per gameleague 3.02.5

10/10Over 0.5league %949/10

9/10Over 1.5league %807/10

8/10Over 2.5league %574/10

2/10Over 3.5league %363/10

2/10Over 4.5league %181/10

7/10Both scoreleague %570/10

2/10Clean sheets9/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%91 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Fagiano Okayama win 32, 61 end level and FC Tokyo win 907. The actual result comes up 907 times in 1000.

0.83 – 4.14 The score the chances deserved (xG): Fagiano Okayama 0.83 – 4.14 FC Tokyo.

8.9

Man of the match: T. Nakagawa (FC Tokyo), rated 8.9.

%49 Our model's pre-match chance of an FC Tokyo win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Fagiano Okayama · J1 League

FC Tokyo · J1 League

Fagiano Okayama · All games

FC Tokyo · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match