Mito Hollyhock – Shimizu S-pulse: probabilities, statistics and live score

Mito HollyhockJ-League · #17

1-2Sunday, October 11

Shimizu S-pulseJ-League · #13

Match events

Mito HollyhockShimizu S-pulse

20'⇄Kotaro UchinoOff: Yoshiki Torikai
24'Oh Se-hun
26'Kotaro Uchino
45'⇄Yudai ShimamotoOff: Koya Kitagawa
45'⇄Ryo GermainOff: Oh Se-hun
45'⇄Tomoya FujiiOff: Kenta Inoue

Chances to win

Mito Hollyhock%36

Draw%29

Shimizu S-pulse%35

At a glance

Over 1.5

%47Over 2.5

%53Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Mito HollyhockW7-0L0-2L0-1D0-0D1-1

Shimizu S-pulseD1-1W2-0W2-1W1-0L

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Mito Hollyhock · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Shimizu S-pulse · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Mito Hollyhock · last 9 at home4.0 corners, 0.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/9Over 4.5 corners3/9Over 5.5 corners

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%53Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%53

Not both score%47

Over 2.5%47

Mito Hollyhock win%36

Shimizu S-pulse win%35

Draw%29

Why?

Mito Hollyhock · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Shimizu S-pulse · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Mito Hollyhock: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Shimizu S-pulse: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Mito Hollyhock scored 1.0 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Shimizu S-pulse scored 1.0 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Mito Hollyhock: 10 games · Shimizu S-pulse: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)0.7

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.8

2.5Total goals per gameleague 3.02.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

7/10Over 1.5league %818/10

4/10Over 2.5league %595/10

2/10Over 3.5league %372/10

1/10Over 4.5league %180/10

5/10Both scoreleague %563/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score5/10

Mito Hollyhock: 10 games · Shimizu S-pulse: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)1.1

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.8

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.02.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

7/10Over 1.5league %819/10

5/10Over 2.5league %596/10

3/10Over 3.5league %373/10

2/10Over 4.5league %181/10

2/10Both scoreleague %565/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

6/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

90+1'

Hidehiro Sugai decided it in minute 90.

7 – 1 Corners: Mito Hollyhock 7 – 1 Shimizu S-pulse.

%54 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Mito Hollyhock win 172, 291 end level and Shimizu S-pulse win 537. The actual result comes up 537 times in 1000.

0.60 – 1.30 The score the chances deserved (xG): Mito Hollyhock 0.60 – 1.30 Shimizu S-pulse.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Mito Hollyhock · J1 League

Shimizu S-pulse · J1 League

Mito Hollyhock · All games

Shimizu S-pulse · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match