Jong AZ – Den Bosch: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Matchday 10

Jong AZEerste Divisie: Regular season · #10

0-1Friday, October 9

Den BoschEerste Divisie: Regular season · #13

Match events

Jong AZDen Bosch

41'⚽Hessel EikelboomAssist: Kevin Monzialo
43'Julian Oerip
45'⇄Wang BohaoOff: Jack de Vries
45'⇄Gijs GrootOff: Jerolldino Armantrading
61'⇄Julian SijbrandsOff: Wassim bouziane
61'⇄Jasper HartogOff: Kevin toppenberg

Chances to win

Jong AZ%48

Draw%22

Den Bosch%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%76Over 2.5

%74Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%76Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 8.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%74

Jong AZ win%48

Den Bosch win%30

Not both score%26

Under 2.5%24

Draw%22

Why?

Jong AZ: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Jong AZW4-1D1-1L2-3W6-3W2-1

Den BoschD1-1L0-1W2-1L0-2L1-3

Last 8 meetings

2Jong AZ won

4Draw

2Den Bosch won

2.8
Goals per game5/8
Over 2.53/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Jong AZ · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Den Bosch · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Jong AZ · last 10 at home7.1 corners, 0.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners10/10Over 5.5 corners7/10Over 0.5 cards

Den Bosch · last 9 away5.2 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/9Over 4.5 corners5/9Over 5.5 corners5/9Over 0.5 cards8/9Over 1.5 cards4/9

Bench

F. Murre, E. Bijlsma, J. van Heertum, K. de Rooij, Wang Bohao, B. van Schuppen, G. Hessels, E. Semedo, L. Hoffman, I. Boumassaoudi

Den Bosch – Jong AZFebruary 16, 2024 · Eerste Divisie0-0

Jong AZ – Den BoschDecember 11, 2023 · Eerste Divisie0-0

Jong AZ – Den BoschFebruary 17, 2023 · Eerste Divisie3-1

Den Bosch – Jong AZOctober 14, 2022 · Eerste Divisie3-0

Ilias BoumassaoudiOff: Sebastian Karlsson Grach

81'⇄Saviola Mourinho Simons SaffoeOff: Hessel de Wit

87'⇄Mathijs MenuOff: Andrea Natali

Statistics

62%Possession38%

0.84Expected goals0.94

14Total shots17

5Shots on target4

10Corners7

14Fouls7

1Offsides3

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

3Saves5

Den Bosch: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Jong AZ scored 1.6 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Den Bosch scored 1.3 and conceded 2.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Jong AZ · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Den Bosch · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Jong AZ: 10 games · Den Bosch: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.3Goals conceded (avg)2.2

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.63.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %868/10

4/10Over 2.5league %687/10

2/10Over 3.5league %445/10

2/10Over 4.5league %284/10

5/10Both scoreleague %706/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score3/10

Jong AZ: 10 games · Den Bosch: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.6Goals scored (avg)1.5

2.2Goals conceded (avg)1.8

4.8Total goals per gameleague 3.63.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %868/10

8/10Over 2.5league %686/10

5/10Over 3.5league %444/10

5/10Over 4.5league %282/10

9/10Both scoreleague %707/10

0/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%36 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Jong AZ win 307, 331 end level and Den Bosch win 362. The actual result comes up 362 times in 1000.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of an Den Bosch win.

0.84 – 0.94 The score the chances deserved (xG): Jong AZ 0.84 – 0.94 Den Bosch.

7.9

Man of the match: P. van de Merbel (Den Bosch), rated 7.9.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Jong AZ · Eerste Divisie

Den Bosch · Eerste Divisie

Jong AZ · All games

Den Bosch · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Jong AZ's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match