The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.
%71Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Both score%68
De Graafschap win%57
Not both score%32
Under 2.5%29
Jong Utrecht win%22
Draw%21
Why?
De Graafschap: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
De GraafschapD2-2W1-0L1-2W2-1L0-5
Jong UtrechtL1-3W6-1W3-2D0-0L1-2
Last 8 meetings
3De Graafschap won
4Draw
1Jong Utrecht won
2.8 Goals per game3/8 Over 2.55/8 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
De Graafschap · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
Jong Utrecht · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
De Graafschap · last 9 at home5.3 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/9Over 4.5 corners5/9Over 5.5 corners3/9
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie
2W 3D 5LScored 13 · conceded 242.5 Üst 8/10KG 8/10
Jong Utrecht · Eerste Divisie
3W 1D 6LScored 17 · conceded 212.5 Üst 8/10KG 8/10
De Graafschap · All games
2W 3D 5LScored 13 · conceded 242.5 Üst 8/10KG 8/10
Jong Utrecht · All games
3W 1D 6LScored 17 · conceded 212.5 Üst 8/10KG 8/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
De Graafschap · 4-2-3-1
1T. Wieggers
2J. Wieckhoff
3R. Besselink
15T. Kok
21K. Symons
7Bjorn van Zijl
8D. Warmerdam
10F. de Jong
16N. Martens
23M. Diemers
40Kyano Kwint
Bench
P. Reverson, R. Jonkers, J. Hardeman, L. Schoppema, Gijs Bolk, Denzel Eijken, Gabriele Finocchiaro, N. Ahmeti-Grainca, J. Triep, J. Kania, T. Mero, N. Kaninda
Jong Utrecht · 4-3-3
1M. Eppink
This fixture at De Graafschap's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 4
2De Graafschap won
2Draw
0Jong Utrecht won
De Graafschap last won here on Feb 20, 2026: De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.Jong Utrecht won none of the last 4 here.2.8 goals a game here · over 2.5 2/4 · BTTS 2/4
Last 8 meetings
3De Graafschap won
4Draw
1Jong Utrecht won
2.8 Goals per game3/8 Over 2.55/8 Both score
Previous meetings
De Graafschap – Jong UtrechtFebruary 20, 2026 · Eerste Divisie1-0
Jong Utrecht – De GraafschapDecember 8, 2025 · Eerste Divisie2-3
Jong Utrecht – De GraafschapJanuary 20, 2025 · Eerste Divisie1-1
De Graafschap – Jong UtrechtAugust 23, 2024 · Eerste Divisie
Over 0.5 cards
7/9
Over 1.5 cards2/9
Jong Utrecht · last 10 away4.9 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards5/10
De Graafschap · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10
Jong Utrecht · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10
De Graafschap: 10 games · Jong Utrecht: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.9Goals scored (avg)1.3
1.8Goals conceded (avg)2.1
3.7Total goals per gameleague 3.63.4
10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10
9/10Over 1.5league %869/10
8/10Over 2.5league %687/10
5/10Over 3.5league %443/10
3/10Over 4.5league %282/10
8/10Both scoreleague %708/10
2/10Clean sheets1/10
0/10Failed to score1/10
De Graafschap: 10 games · Jong Utrecht: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.2Goals scored (avg)1.7
1.6Goals conceded (avg)2.6
2.8Total goals per gameleague 3.64.3
10/10Over 0.5league %989/10
8/10Over 1.5league %869/10
7/10Over 2.5league %689/10
2/10Over 3.5league %445/10
1/10Over 4.5league %284/10
7/10Both scoreleague %709/10
1/10Clean sheets1/10
2/10Failed to score1/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%38 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), De Graafschap win 381, 235 end level and Jong Utrecht win 385. The actual result comes up 381 times in 1000.
1.59 – 1.60 The score the chances deserved (xG): De Graafschap 1.59 – 1.60 Jong Utrecht.
7.8 Man of the match: W. Kooy (Jong Utrecht), rated 7.8.
%57 Our model's pre-match chance of a De Graafschap win.