Tigres UANL – Toluca: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Liga MX · Mexico · Apertura - 11

Tigres UANLLiga MX: Apertura · #15

3-2Saturday, October 10

TolucaLiga MX: Apertura · #5

Match events

Tigres UANLToluca

6'⚽Juan Brunetta
33'Alexis Vega
37'⚽Guillermo MartinezAssist: Emiliano Gómez
42'⚽João Paulo Dias FernandesAssist: Brian Garcia
43'Brian Garcia
45'⇄Federico ViñasOff: Érick Gutiérrez
45+4'

Chances to win

Tigres UANL%34

Draw%27

Toluca%39

At a glance

Over 1.5

%55Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Tigres UANLW1-0L0-2D0-0D1-1D0-0

TolucaD3-3L2-3W1-0W5-2W

Last 15 meetings

5Tigres UANL won

4Draw

6Toluca won

3.0
Goals per game10/15
Over 2.510/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Tigres UANL · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Toluca · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Tigres UANL · last 9 at home5.8 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/9Over 4.5 corners6/9Over 5.5 corners4/9Over 0.5 cards

Toluca · last 8 away5.5 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/8Over 4.5 corners7/8Over 5.5 corners4/8Over 0.5 cards6/8Over 1.5 cards4/8

Bench

H. González, D. Barbosa, Luan, E. López, J. Angulo, P. Pérez, S. Simón, F. Arce, J. Díaz, F. Viñas

Toluca – Tigres UANLJuly 27, 2025 · Liga MX3-4

Toluca – Tigres UANLMay 18, 2025 · Liga MX3-0

Tigres UANL – TolucaMay 15, 2025 · Liga MX1-1

Toluca – Tigres UANLFebruary 2, 2025 · Liga MX1-0

Tigres UANL – TolucaNovember 7, 2024 · Liga MX2-1

Toluca – Tigres UANLMarch 3, 2024 · Liga MX2-1

Tigres UANL – TolucaOctober 5, 2023 · Liga MX2-2

Toluca – Tigres UANLMay 14, 2023 · Liga MX3-1

Tigres UANL – TolucaMay 12, 2023 · Liga MX4-1

Toluca – Tigres UANLApril 2, 2023 · Liga MX3-2

Tigres UANL – TolucaSeptember 8, 2022 · Liga MX3-1

Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich

54'⚽Federico ViñasAssist: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro

60'⚽Juan BrunettaAssist: Fernando Gorriarán

69'⇄Diego SánchezOff: Emiliano Gómez

69'⇄Vladimir LoroñaOff: Alan Franco

70'⇄Jesús AnguloOff: Alexis Vega

71'⇄Santiago SimonOff: Brian Garcia

71'⇄Jorge DiazOff: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro

77'⇄Rodrigo AguirreOff: Guillermo Martinez

77'⇄Jonathan HerreraOff: Diego Lainez

89'⇄Jesús GarzaOff: Juan Brunetta

90'⇄Pavel PérezOff: Nicolás Castro

Statistics

30%Possession70%

1.81Expected goals1.3

20Total shots17

13Shots on target8

5Corners6

13Fouls20

1Offsides2

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

6Saves10

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%59Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%55

Under 2.5%45

Not both score%41

Toluca win%39

Tigres UANL win%34

Draw%27

Why?

Tigres UANL · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Toluca · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

Tigres UANL: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Toluca: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
Tigres UANL scored 1.7 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Toluca scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Tigres UANL: 10 games · Toluca: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.5

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.1Total goals per gameleague 3.03.1

9/10Over 0.5league %959/10

7/10Over 1.5league %818/10

2/10Over 2.5league %535/10

2/10Over 3.5league %333/10

1/10Over 4.5league %223/10

5/10Both scoreleague %616/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Tigres UANL: 10 games · Toluca: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.7Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.5

1.9Total goals per gameleague 3.03.6

8/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %819/10

2/10Over 2.5league %535/10

1/10Over 3.5league %335/10

1/10Over 4.5league %224/10

4/10Both scoreleague %617/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

5/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%49 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Tigres UANL win 494, 230 end level and Toluca win 276. The actual result comes up 494 times in 1000.

30 – 70 Possession (%): Tigres UANL 30 – 70 Toluca.

%34 Our model's pre-match chance of a Tigres UANL win.

1.81 – 1.30 The score the chances deserved (xG): Tigres UANL 1.81 – 1.30 Toluca.

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Cards
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When they concede

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Cards
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When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Tigres UANL's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Tigres UANL · Liga MX

Toluca · Liga MX

Tigres UANL · All games

Toluca · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match