Llaneros – Junior: probabilities, statistics and live score

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LlanerosApertura · #14

3-2Sunday, November 1

JuniorApertura · #2

Match events

LlanerosJunior

17'⚽J. RamirezAssist: F. Castaneda
46'⇄J. CanchimboOff: D. Caicedo
50'⚽Y. CharaAssist: L. Muriel
55'⚽J. Escobar SalcedoAssist: Jhon Vasquez
60'J. Pena
62'⇄J. CastillaOff: F. Castaneda

Chances to win

Llaneros%33

Draw%28

Junior%39

At a glance

Over 1.5

%52Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%52

Under 2.5%48

Not both score%43

Junior win%39

Llaneros win%33

Draw%28

Why?

Llaneros: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

LlanerosL0-1L0-3W1-0L1-4L0-1

JuniorD1-1W1-0D0-0D1-1D2-2

Last 3 meetings

0Llaneros won

0Draw

3Junior won

2.3
Goals per game1/3
Over 2.50/3
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Llaneros · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Junior · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Llaneros · last 8 at home5.3 corners, 3.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/8Over 4.5 corners5/8Over 5.5 corners5/8Over 0.5 cards

Junior · last 8 away4.1 corners, 3.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/8Over 4.5 corners4/8Over 5.5 corners3/8Over 0.5 cards8/8Over 1.5 cards5/8

Bench

Jefersson Martínez, Daniel Rivera, Juan David Ríos, Guillermo Celis, Andrés Schmalbach, Guillermo Paiva, Francisco Fydriszewski, Joel Canchimbo, Bryan Castrillón

J. ContrerasOff: C. Cortes

63'⇄F. FydriszewskiOff: K. Perez

63'⇄G. PaivaOff: L. Muriel

73'⚽G. PaivaPenalty

80'⚽N. OspinaPenalty

87'⇄Kelvin OsorioOff: J. Ramirez

89'⇄B. ChuryOff: N. Ospina

90'⇄G. CelisOff: J. Rivas

90'⇄B. CastrillonOff: F. S. Angel Bernal

Statistics

48%Possession52%

0.37Expected goals1.59

9Total shots13

3Shots on target3

1Corners1

11Fouls9

0Offsides2

0Yellow cards1

1Saves1

80%Pass accuracy80%

Junior: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Llaneros scored 1.5 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Junior scored 1.3 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Junior · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Llaneros: 10 games · Junior: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.9

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.53.2

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

8/10Over 1.5league %747/10

6/10Over 2.5league %476/10

2/10Over 3.5league %245/10

0/10Over 4.5league %103/10

4/10Both scoreleague %547/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Llaneros: 10 games · Junior: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.2

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.52.5

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

7/10Over 1.5league %747/10

6/10Over 2.5league %474/10

2/10Over 3.5league %244/10

2/10Over 4.5league %101/10

5/10Both scoreleague %546/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%8 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Llaneros win 82, 237 end level and Junior win 681. The actual result comes up 82 times in 1000.

Junior: a 5-match unbeaten run ended here.

0.37 – 1.59 The score the chances deserved (xG): Llaneros 0.37 – 1.59 Junior.

%33 Our model's pre-match chance of a Llaneros win.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 3 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Llaneros · Primera A

Junior · Primera A

Llaneros · All games

Junior · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 3 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match