Bucaramanga – Deportivo Pasto: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Primera A · Colombia · Clausura - 5

BucaramangaApertura · #13

2-1Saturday, October 31

Deportivo PastoApertura · #3

Match events

BucaramangaDeportivo Pasto

23'⚽H. MancillaAssist: J. Micolta Piedahita
31'✕F. SambuezaMissed penalty
43'⚽E. Batalla
56'⇄M. PisanoOff: J. Perlaza
61'⇄M. S. JimenezOff: J. Rios
61'⇄J. ObregonOff: M. Gil

Chances to win

Bucaramanga%58

Draw%25

Deportivo Pasto%17

At a glance

Over 1.5

%45Over 2.5

%44Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Bucaramanga win.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Not both score%56

Under 2.5%55

Over 2.5%45

Both score%44

Draw%25

Deportivo Pasto win%17

Why?

Bucaramanga won 3 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

BucaramangaL1-2L0-1D1-1D1-1W3-1

Deportivo PastoW1-0L0-3L0-1D0-0L0-3

Last 15 meetings

5Bucaramanga won

4Draw

6Deportivo Pasto won

1.9
Goals per game6/15
Over 2.56/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Bucaramanga · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Deportivo Pasto · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Bucaramanga · last 7 at home2.7 corners, 3.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners1/7Over 4.5 corners1/7Over 5.5 corners1/7Over 0.5 cards

Deportivo Pasto · last 8 away3.0 corners, 3.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/8Over 4.5 corners1/8Over 5.5 corners0/8Over 0.5 cards7/8Over 1.5 cards6/8

15Harrinson Mancilla

Bench

Luis Marquínez, Santiago Jiménez, Julián Quiñones, Diego Chávez, Kevin Santacruz, Matías Pisano, Jorge Obregón, John Méndez, Hervin Goyes

Deportivo Pasto – BucaramangaOctober 18, 2024 · Copa Colombia1-2

Deportivo Pasto – BucaramangaAugust 24, 2024 · Primera A1-2

Bucaramanga – Deportivo PastoFebruary 20, 2024 · Primera A1-0

Bucaramanga – Deportivo PastoSeptember 22, 2023 · Primera A0-2

Deportivo Pasto – BucaramangaApril 14, 2023 · Primera A1-0

Deportivo Pasto – BucaramangaAugust 7, 2022 · Primera A1-0

Bucaramanga – Deportivo PastoFebruary 12, 2022 · Primera A0-1

Bucaramanga – Deportivo PastoOctober 24, 2021 · Primera A2-1

Deportivo Pasto – BucaramangaApril 16, 2021 · Primera A1-1

Deportivo Pasto – BucaramangaFebruary 8, 2020 · Primera A4-0

Deportivo Pasto – BucaramangaAugust 5, 2019 · Primera A1-1

75'⇄A. MurriloOff: F. Hinestroza

76'⇄D. ChavezOff: E. C. Serje Orozco

77'⇄J. MendezOff: F. Leys

80'⇄V. CantilloOff: L. Flores

90+1'⇄A. GutierrezOff: F. Sambueza

90+1'⇄K. LondonoOff: N. Castrillon

Statistics

64%Possession36%

3.14Expected goals0.73

21Total shots11

7Shots on target4

2Corners3

13Fouls10

3Offsides1

3Yellow cards3

4Saves6

83%Pass accuracy74%

Bucaramanga scored 2.0 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Deportivo Pasto scored 1.0 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Deportivo Pasto · last 10 away: 5 defeats5/10

Bucaramanga: 10 games · Deportivo Pasto: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.1Total goals per gameleague 2.52.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

10/10Over 1.5league %748/10

5/10Over 2.5league %476/10

4/10Over 3.5league %242/10

2/10Over 4.5league %101/10

8/10Both scoreleague %544/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

0/10Failed to score3/10

Bucaramanga: 10 games · Deportivo Pasto: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)0.7

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.52.2

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

9/10Over 1.5league %745/10

6/10Over 2.5league %475/10

4/10Over 3.5league %242/10

0/10Over 4.5league %101/10

8/10Both scoreleague %543/10

1/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

3.14 – 0.73 The score the chances deserved (xG): Bucaramanga 3.14 – 0.73 Deportivo Pasto.

%84 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Bucaramanga win 841, 104 end level and Deportivo Pasto win 55. The actual result comes up 841 times in 1000.

8.7

Man of the match: Emerson Batalla (Bucaramanga), rated 8.7.

%58 Our model's pre-match chance of a Bucaramanga win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Bucaramanga · Primera A

Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

Bucaramanga · All games

Deportivo Pasto · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Bucaramanga's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match