The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Atletico Nacional win.
%62Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Over 2.5%59
Both score%55
Not both score%45
Under 2.5%41
Draw%22
Santa Fe win%16
Why?
Atletico Nacional won 8 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
Atletico NacionalW2-1W3-0L0-1W4-1W3-2
Santa FeW2-1W2-1L0-1D2-2W1-0
Last 15 meetings
8Atletico Nacional won
5Draw
2Santa Fe won
2.6 Goals per game9/15 Over 2.59/15 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Atletico Nacional · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 6 games it led at half-time.
Santa Fe · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Atletico Nacional · last 7 at home4.3 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/7Over 4.5 corners2/7Over 5.5 corners2/7Over 0.5 cards
Referee
J. Ortiz6.0 cards a match in 18 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Atletico Nacional · Primera A
6W 2D 2LScored 18 · conceded 92.5 Üst 5/10KG 5/10
Santa Fe · Primera A
7W 1D 2LScored 17 · conceded 102.5 Üst 6/10KG 6/10
Atletico Nacional · All games
6W 2D 2LScored 19 · conceded 112.5 Üst 6/10KG 6/10
Santa Fe · All games
5W 2D 3LScored 14 · conceded 112.5 Üst 5/10KG 6/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Atletico Nacional · 4-2-3-1
34Franco Armani
6Andrés Román
15Andres Reyes
16William Tesillo
33Samuel Velásquez
19Juan Manuel Rengifo
21Jorman Campuzano
22Elías Cabrera
26Felipe Marin
29Andrés Sarmiento
23James Rodríguez
Bench
Luis Marquinez, César Haydar, Milton Casco, Simon Rojas, Xavi Rios, Juan Zapata, Nicolás Rodríguez, Emanuel Benitez, Jose Rafael Escorcia
Santa Fe · 4-3-3
12Weimar Asprilla
This fixture at Atletico Nacional's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 7
4Atletico Nacional won
2Draw
1Santa Fe won
Atletico Nacional last won here on Nov 21, 2024: Atletico Nacional 5-0 Santa Fe.Santa Fe last won here on Jun 9, 2025: Atletico Nacional 1-2 Santa Fe.2.7 goals a game here · over 2.5 4/7 · BTTS 4/7
Last 15 meetings
8Atletico Nacional won
5Draw
2Santa Fe won
2.6 Goals per game9/15 Over 2.59/15 Both score
Previous meetings
Santa Fe – Atletico NacionalFebruary 26, 2026 · Primera A1-2
Atletico Nacional – Santa FeJuly 26, 2025 · Primera A1-1
Santa Fe – Atletico NacionalJune 13, 2025 · Primera A1-2
Atletico Nacional – Santa FeJune 9, 2025 · Primera A
6/7
Over 1.5 cards5/7
Santa Fe · last 9 away3.3 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/9Over 4.5 corners4/9Over 5.5 corners2/9Over 0.5 cards9/9Over 1.5 cards6/9
Atletico Nacional: 10 games · Santa Fe: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.1Goals scored (avg)1.3
0.6Goals conceded (avg)1.0
2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.52.3
9/10Over 0.5league %9310/10
9/10Over 1.5league %748/10
6/10Over 2.5league %473/10
2/10Over 3.5league %241/10
1/10Over 4.5league %101/10
5/10Both scoreleague %545/10
5/10Clean sheets2/10
1/10Failed to score3/10
Atletico Nacional: 10 games · Santa Fe: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.8Goals scored (avg)1.4
0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.1
2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.52.5
9/10Over 0.5league %9310/10
8/10Over 1.5league %747/10
5/10Over 2.5league %475/10
3/10Over 3.5league %242/10
2/10Over 4.5league %101/10
5/10Both scoreleague %546/10
3/10Clean sheets1/10
3/10Failed to score3/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%34 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Atletico Nacional win 338, 519 end level and Santa Fe win 144. The actual result comes up 338 times in 1000.
0.53 – 0.26 The score the chances deserved (xG): Atletico Nacional 0.53 – 0.26 Santa Fe.
66 – 34 Possession (%): Atletico Nacional 66 – 34 Santa Fe.
8.2 Man of the match: Elías Cabrera (Atletico Nacional), rated 8.2.