FC Cajamarca – UTC Cajamarca: probabilities, statistics and live score

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FC CajamarcaPrimera Division: Tabla Anual · #16

1-3Wednesday, October 28

UTC CajamarcaPrimera Division: Tabla Anual · #18

Match events

FC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca

20'⚽Marlon de JesúsAssist: Adolfo Muñoz
21'Marlon de Jesús
25'Arquímedes Figuera
45'⇄David DiosesOff: Joshua Cantt
52'VARPaulo GoyonecheCard upgrade confirmed
52'Paulo Goyoneche

Chances to win

FC Cajamarca%48

Draw%25

UTC Cajamarca%27

At a glance

Over 1.5

%55Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%57

FC Cajamarca win%48

Under 2.5%45

Not both score%43

UTC Cajamarca win%27

Draw%25

Why?

FC Cajamarca: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

FC CajamarcaL2-4L0-1D0-0L1-2W2-1

UTC CajamarcaL1-2L0-1L0-1L2-3L1-2

Last 2 meetings

1FC Cajamarca won

0Draw

1UTC Cajamarca won

3.5
Goals per game2/2
Over 2.52/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

FC Cajamarca · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

UTC Cajamarca · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

FC Cajamarca · last 7 at home3.1 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/7Over 4.5 corners1/7Over 5.5 corners1/7Over 0.5 cards

UTC Cajamarca · last 6 away2.0 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners1/6Over 4.5 corners0/6Over 5.5 corners0/6Over 0.5 cards6/6Over 1.5 cards4/6

Bench

R. Bettocchi, I. Barrios, J. Huerto, G. Paredes, D. Dioses, L. Arce, J. Nunez, A. Arroyo, S. Gálvez

Luis ArceOff: Adolfo Muñoz

56'⇄Carlos CorreaOff: Michel Rasmussen

57'⇄Carlos Junior HuertoOff: Dylan Caro

64'⇄P. CejasOff: Carlos Meza

67'⇄Abdiel ArroyoOff: Marlon de Jesús

71'⚽Marcos LliuyaAssist: David Dioses

75'⇄Jonathan BetancourtOff: R. Suárez

76'⇄Arthur Alexander Gutiérrez IngaOff: José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez

81'⚽Abdiel ArroyoPenalty

84'⇄Santiago GálvezOff: David Camacho

88'⚽S. EncisoAssist: Jonathan Betancourt

Statistics

53%Possession47%

0.47Expected goals1.46

8Total shots9

4Shots on target5

3Corners4

14Fouls13

0Yellow cards2

1Red cards0

2Saves4

UTC Cajamarca: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

FC Cajamarca scored 1.3 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

UTC Cajamarca scored 1.1 and conceded 2.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

FC Cajamarca · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

UTC Cajamarca · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

FC Cajamarca: 10 games · UTC Cajamarca: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.4

2.3Goals conceded (avg)2.1

3.4Total goals per gameleague 2.83.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

9/10Over 1.5league %758/10

6/10Over 2.5league %547/10

5/10Over 3.5league %347/10

2/10Over 4.5league %173/10

8/10Both scoreleague %598/10

0/10Clean sheets0/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

FC Cajamarca: 10 games · UTC Cajamarca: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.3

2.4Goals conceded (avg)2.1

3.8Total goals per gameleague 2.83.4

9/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %758/10

8/10Over 2.5league %547/10

6/10Over 3.5league %345/10

4/10Over 4.5league %173/10

8/10Both scoreleague %598/10

1/10Clean sheets0/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

UTC Cajamarca: a 14-match wait for a win is over.

%27 Our model's pre-match chance of an UTC Cajamarca win.

%62 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), FC Cajamarca win 118, 263 end level and UTC Cajamarca win 619. The actual result comes up 619 times in 1000.

0.47 – 1.46 The score the chances deserved (xG): FC Cajamarca 0.47 – 1.46 UTC Cajamarca.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

FC Cajamarca · Primera División

UTC Cajamarca · Primera División

FC Cajamarca · All games

UTC Cajamarca · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match