The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Alianza Atletico win.
%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Over 2.5%54
Both score%53
Not both score%47
Under 2.5%46
Draw%25
Deportivo Garcilaso win%21
Why?
Alianza Atletico won 8 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
Alianza AtleticoL1-4L1-4W3-1W3-0L0-3
Deportivo GarcilasoW4-1L2-4L0-1W4-0L0-1
Last 8 meetings
6Alianza Atletico won
0Draw
2Deportivo Garcilaso won
2.9 Goals per game4/8 Over 2.53/8 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Alianza Atletico · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
Deportivo Garcilaso · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Alianza Atletico · last 8 at home5.0 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/8Over 4.5 corners5/8Over 5.5 corners3/8Over 0.5 cards
Referee
Daniel Ureta5.0 cards a match in 2 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Alianza Atletico · Primera División
6W 1D 3LScored 20 · conceded 182.5 Üst 8/10KG 9/10
Deportivo Garcilaso · Primera División
6W 1D 3LScored 21 · conceded 102.5 Üst 5/10KG 4/10
Alianza Atletico · All games
5W 1D 4LScored 19 · conceded 202.5 Üst 9/10KG 8/10
Deportivo Garcilaso · All games
6W 1D 3LScored 21 · conceded 102.5 Üst 5/10KG 4/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Alianza Atletico · 4-1-4-1
31S. Rivadeneyra
2R. Suarez
6J. Luján
21E. Perleche
24A. Gordillo
10Germán Díaz
15H. Lupú
23A. Muñoz
27J. Ingratti
37J. Delgado
11G. Larios
Bench
D. Prieto, J. Mendieta, W. Guzmán, S. Fernández, C. Penilla, Jimmy Pérez, J. del Castillo, V. Robaldo, J. Molina
Deportivo Garcilaso · 4-1-4-1
1P. Zubczuk
2
This fixture at Alianza Atletico's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 4
4Alianza Atletico won
0Draw
0Deportivo Garcilaso won
Alianza Atletico last won here on Mar 4, 2026: Alianza Atletico 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso.Deportivo Garcilaso won none of the last 4 here.2.0 goals a game here · over 2.5 1/4 · BTTS 0/4
Last 8 meetings
6Alianza Atletico won
0Draw
2Deportivo Garcilaso won
2.9 Goals per game4/8 Over 2.53/8 Both score
Previous meetings
Deportivo Garcilaso – Alianza AtleticoMay 11, 2026 · Primera División2-1
Alianza Atletico: 10 games · Deportivo Garcilaso: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.3Goals scored (avg)0.7
1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.1
3.7Total goals per gameleague 2.81.8
10/10Over 0.5league %947/10
9/10Over 1.5league %753/10
8/10Over 2.5league %543/10
6/10Over 3.5league %342/10
4/10Over 4.5league %172/10
8/10Both scoreleague %593/10
2/10Clean sheets5/10
0/10Failed to score5/10
Alianza Atletico: 10 games · Deportivo Garcilaso: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.1Goals scored (avg)2.1
2.1Goals conceded (avg)1.3
4.2Total goals per gameleague 2.83.4
10/10Over 0.5league %949/10
10/10Over 1.5league %756/10
10/10Over 2.5league %546/10
7/10Over 3.5league %346/10
5/10Over 4.5league %175/10
8/10Both scoreleague %595/10
1/10Clean sheets3/10
1/10Failed to score3/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%45 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Alianza Atletico win 449, 254 end level and Deportivo Garcilaso win 298. The actual result comes up 449 times in 1000.
1.52 – 1.19 The score the chances deserved (xG): Alianza Atletico 1.52 – 1.19 Deportivo Garcilaso.
9.0 Man of the match: G. Larios (Alianza Atletico), rated 9.0.
%54 Our model's pre-match chance of a Alianza Atletico win.