Aarhus – Sonderjyske: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Superliga · Denmark · Matchday 10

AarhusSuperliga · #8

3-0Monday, October 12

SonderjyskeSuperliga · #12

Match events

AarhusSonderjyske

9'⚽Kristian Arnstad
15'VARKristian ArnstadGoal confirmed
15'⚽Janni SerraAssist: Rasmus Carstensen
25'VARMagnus KnudsenGoal cancelled
38'⚽Frederik TingagerAssist: Kristian Arnstad
45'⇄Stefan VelkovOff: Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason

Chances to win

Aarhus%60

Draw%21

Sonderjyske%18

At a glance

Over 1.5

%64Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%61

Aarhus win%60

Not both score%39

Under 2.5%36

Draw%21

Sonderjyske win%18

Why?

Aarhus: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AarhusD2-2W6-1L0-2D2-2L0-2

SonderjyskeW4-2L1-3D1-1L2-5W2-0

Last 7 meetings

4Aarhus won

2Draw

1Sonderjyske won

3.4
Goals per game5/7
Over 2.56/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Aarhus · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Sonderjyske · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Aarhus · last 10 at home7.1 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Sonderjyske · last 8 away4.3 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/8Over 4.5 corners5/8Over 5.5 corners2/8Over 0.5 cards7/8Over 1.5 cards4/8

10Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad

Bench

M. Hedenstad Christiansen, E. Kahl, C. Rösler, J. Andersen, M. Solbakken, S. Jørgensen, C. McCowatt, S. Tchamche, J. Bogere

Sonderjyske · 4-2-3-1

24N. Shinton

3A. Munksgaard

12M. Soulas

19P. Kristensen

25B. Bjarnason

7S. Emini

8M. Haidara

10M. Olesen

17A. Hoeg

31I. Seydi

11O. De Rosario

Bench

N. Flø, S. Velkov, G. Wagner, T. Haltvik, A. Oggesen, J. Christensen, Elias Hjort- Pedersen, M. Hoppe, B. Tambedou

Sonderjyske – AarhusJuly 20, 2025 · Superliga1-1

Sonderjyske – AarhusFebruary 16, 2025 · Superliga1-4

Aarhus – SonderjyskeAugust 2, 2024 · Superliga4-0

63'⇄Callum McCowattOff: Frederik Emmery

66'⇄Teodor Berg HaltvikOff: Sefer Emini

66'⇄Jacob ChristensenOff: Mathias Olesen

77'⇄Eric KahlOff: Daniel Leo Gretarsson

78'⇄Stefen TchamcheOff: Janni Serra

81'⇄Andreas OggesenOff: Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg

81'⇄Bubacarr TambedouOff: Ismaïl Seydi

90'⇄James BogereOff: Tobias Bech Kristensen

90'⇄Jacob AndersenOff: Rasmus Carstensen

Statistics

52%Possession48%

1.23Expected goals1.48

9Total shots14

4Shots on target5

3Corners7

10Fouls11

3Offsides1

0Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

4Saves1

Sonderjyske: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Aarhus scored 1.7 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Sonderjyske scored 1.1 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Aarhus · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Sonderjyske · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Aarhus: 10 games · Sonderjyske: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.7Goals conceded (avg)2.1

3.2Total goals per gameleague 3.13.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9610/10

10/10Over 1.5league %858/10

7/10Over 2.5league %576/10

4/10Over 3.5league %384/10

1/10Over 4.5league %192/10

8/10Both scoreleague %636/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Aarhus: 10 games · Sonderjyske: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.2Goals conceded (avg)2.5

3.1Total goals per gameleague 3.14.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9610/10

9/10Over 1.5league %8510/10

6/10Over 2.5league %578/10

3/10Over 3.5league %386/10

1/10Over 4.5league %193/10

7/10Both scoreleague %636/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Aarhus: a 10-match wait for a win is over.

1.23 – 1.48 The score the chances deserved (xG): Aarhus 1.23 – 1.48 Sonderjyske.

%32 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Aarhus win 315, 255 end level and Sonderjyske win 430. The actual result comes up 315 times in 1000.

8.4

Man of the match: Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad (Aarhus), rated 8.4.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Aarhus · Superliga

Sonderjyske · Superliga

Aarhus · All games

Sonderjyske · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Aarhus's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match