Start – Ham-Kam: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eliteserien · Norway · Matchday 23

StartEliteserien · #16

2-4Sunday, October 11

Ham-KamEliteserien · #13

Match events

StartHam-Kam

35'VARFredrik SjolstadPenalty confirmed
36'⚽Luc MaresPenalty
43'⚽John Olav NorheimAssist: Sander Aske Granheim
53'⚽Loris MettlerAssist: Patrick Metcalfe
61'⇄Nikolaos KoutsakosOff: Hakon Lorentzen
62'⇄Eirik SchulzeOff: Mikael Ugland

Chances to win

Start%52

Draw%24

Ham-Kam%24

At a glance

Over 1.5

%59Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%59Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%60

Start win%52

Under 2.5%41

Not both score%40

Draw%24

Ham-Kam win%24

Why?

Start: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

StartW5-1L0-3W3-2W2-0L0-2

Ham-KamL2-3W2-0L1-5L0-4D2-2

Last 1 meetings

0Start won

0Draw

1Ham-Kam won

3.0
Goals per game1/1
Over 2.51/1
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Start · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Ham-Kam · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Start · last 10 at home5.4 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Ham-Kam · last 8 away2.9 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/8Over 4.5 corners1/8Over 5.5 corners1/8Over 0.5 cards7/8Over 1.5 cards4/8

Bench

S. Strand-Kolbjørnsen, F. Pålerud, J. Meyer, E. Schulze, S. Samuyiwa, N. Jojić, N. Koutsakos, M. Nordal

Ham-Kam · 5-3-2

12M. Sandberg

2M. Gjone

5A. Andresen

22S. Nilsen

23F. Sjølstad

27João Barros

10L. Mettler

14L. Mares

26P. Metcalfe

18Duarte Moreira

24D. Al-Saed

Bench

S. Østraat, E. Amundsen-Day, H. Opsahl, W. Osnes-Ringen, V. Jónsson, M. Ofkir, A. Potur, H. Udahl, David Benjamin

69'⇄David BenjaminOff: Danilo Al-Saed

69'⇄Aksel Baran PoturOff: Fredrik Sjolstad

73'⇄Mohamed OfkirOff: Duarte Moreira

74'⚽Mohamed OfkirAssist: Aksel Baran Potur

75'⇄nikola jojicOff: Erlend Dahl Reitan

75'⇄Fredrik PalerudOff: Altin Ujkani

82'⇄Ethan Amundsen-DayOff: João Paulo Rodrigues Barros

84'⇄Marius NordalOff: Steve Mvoue

90+2'⚽Mohamed OfkirAssist: Aksel Baran Potur

90+5'⚽Erlend Segberg

Statistics

57%Possession43%

1.9Expected goals2.89

22Total shots17

5Shots on target7

5Corners4

10Fouls10

0Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

3Saves3

Ham-Kam: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Start scored 1.2 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Ham-Kam scored 1.6 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Ham-Kam · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Start: 10 games · Ham-Kam: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.8

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.7

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.23.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %879/10

5/10Over 2.5league %638/10

3/10Over 3.5league %374/10

3/10Over 4.5league %223/10

4/10Both scoreleague %603/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

Start: 10 games · Ham-Kam: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.8

2.0Goals conceded (avg)2.2

4.0Total goals per gameleague 3.24.0

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %8710/10

7/10Over 2.5league %638/10

5/10Over 3.5league %376/10

5/10Over 4.5league %224/10

6/10Both scoreleague %605/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Ham-Kam: a 6-match wait for a win is over.

%24 Our model's pre-match chance of an Ham-Kam win.

%59 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Start win 244, 171 end level and Ham-Kam win 585. The actual result comes up 585 times in 1000.

1.90 – 2.89 The score the chances deserved (xG): Start 1.90 – 2.89 Ham-Kam.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 1 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Start · Eliteserien

Ham-Kam · Eliteserien

Start · All games

Ham-Kam · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 1 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match