Lillestrom – Molde: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eliteserien · Norway · Matchday 23

LillestromEliteserien · #6

2-2Sunday, October 11

MoldeEliteserien · #3

Match events

LillestromMolde

10'⚽Sander Hestetun KilenAssist: Kristian Lonebu
16'⚽Felix VáAssist: Daniel Bassi
24'Sondre Granaas
26'⚽Emil BreivikAssist: Daniel Daga
37'Sander Hestetun Kilen
45'⇄Mats Møller DæhliOff: Sander Hestetun Kilen

Chances to win

Lillestrom%38

Draw%24

Molde%38

At a glance

Over 1.5

%67Over 2.5

%68Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

LillestromW5-1L0-3L1-2W2-0W2-1

MoldeL1-2W5-0W5-1W2-0W

Last 7 meetings

3Lillestrom won

0Draw

4Molde won

2.6
Goals per game5/7
Over 2.53/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Lillestrom · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Molde · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Lillestrom · last 10 at home6.9 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Molde · last 8 away5.6 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/8Over 4.5 corners4/8Over 5.5 corners4/8Over 0.5 cards8/8Over 1.5 cards6/8

Bench

S. Hagerup, S. Ottesen, S. Kristiansen, H. Melland, K. Krygård, Y. Paintsil, F. Gulbrandsen, G. Nordh, Y. Ibrahimaj

Molde · 4-1-4-1

22A. Posiadała

8M. Løvik

19E. Haugan

25M. Linnes

27F. Dahl

10E. Breivik

11C. Zady Sery

16S. Kilen

23S. Granaas

30D. Daga

20K. Lonebu

Bench

P. Lervik, S. Kabini, B. Risa, N. Ødegård, M. Møller Dæhli, V. Bender, O. Spiten-Nysæter, Trent Toure Kone Doherty

Lillestrom – MoldeApril 23, 2023 · Eliteserien2-1

Lillestrom – MoldeOctober 16, 2022 · Eliteserien0-1

Molde – LillestromApril 18, 2022 · Eliteserien1-2

Sturla OttesenOff: Lars Ranger

66'⇄Fredrik GulbrandsenOff: Daniel Bassi

66'⇄Winston Robin Yaw PaintsilOff: Frederik Elkaer

67'⇄Viktor BenderOff: Martin Linnes

67'⇄Trent Kone-DohertyOff: Kristian Lonebu

67'⇄Niklas ÖdegardOff: Eirik Haugan

80'⇄Birk RisaOff: Daniel Daga

80'⇄Henrik Molvaer MellandOff: Eric Kitolano

87'⇄Yildren IbrahimajOff: Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim

87'⚽Sander Moen Foss

Statistics

43%Possession57%

1.61Expected goals2.68

13Total shots27

5Shots on target12

7Corners6

8Fouls9

1Offsides0

0Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

9Saves3

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%67Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%68

Lillestrom win%38

Molde win%38

Under 2.5%33

Not both score%32

Draw%24

Why?

Lillestrom · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Molde · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Lillestrom: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Molde: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
Lillestrom scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Molde scored 3.4 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Lillestrom: 10 games · Molde: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)3.5

2.2Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.25.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

10/10Over 1.5league %8710/10

7/10Over 2.5league %639/10

4/10Over 3.5league %377/10

3/10Over 4.5league %225/10

7/10Both scoreleague %607/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

Lillestrom: 10 games · Molde: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)4.5

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.1

3.6Total goals per gameleague 3.25.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

10/10Over 1.5league %8710/10

7/10Over 2.5league %639/10

4/10Over 3.5league %378/10

3/10Over 4.5league %227/10

6/10Both scoreleague %607/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%18 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Lillestrom win 218, 177 end level and Molde win 604. The actual result comes up 177 times in 1000.

%25 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.61 – 2.68 The score the chances deserved (xG): Lillestrom 1.61 – 2.68 Molde.

13 – 27 Shots: Lillestrom 13 – 27 Molde.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

Midsund 0-11 Molde

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Go Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Go Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Lillestrom's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Lillestrom · Eliteserien

Molde · Eliteserien

Lillestrom · All games

Molde · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match