Shelbourne – Waterford: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier Division · Ireland · Matchday 36

ShelbournePremier Division · #4

2-3Friday, October 30

WaterfordPremier Division · #7

Match events

ShelbourneWaterford

9'⚽Kerr McinroyAssist: James Norris
17'Noah Mawene
27'John Mahon
38'⚽Evan McLaughlin
39'⇄Marco UntergrabnerOff: Evan Caffrey
52'⚽Padraig AmondAssist: Tom Lonergan
54'

Chances to win

Shelbourne%47

Draw%24

Waterford%28

At a glance

Over 1.5

%63Over 2.5

%64Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

ShelbourneW1-0W2-1W5-1D1-1W3-2

WaterfordW3-1W3-2L1-2W2-0L

Last 15 meetings

9Shelbourne won

3Draw

3Waterford won

2.1
Goals per game5/15
Over 2.57/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Shelbourne · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Waterford · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Shelbourne · last 6 at home5.5 corners, 3.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/6Over 4.5 corners4/6Over 5.5 corners3/6Over 0.5 cards6/6Over 1.5 cards

Waterford · last 6 away6.8 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/6Over 4.5 corners5/6Over 5.5 corners4/6Over 0.5 cards3/6Over 1.5 cards3/6

Bench

Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty, J. Ashton, B. McKenzie, G. Amedu, Noah O'Brien, L. Heeney, J. Faria, D. McMenamy, T. Coyle

Waterford – ShelbourneJune 23, 2025 · Premier Division2-2

Shelbourne – WaterfordMay 5, 2025 · Premier Division0-1

Waterford – ShelbourneFebruary 21, 2025 · Premier Division0-1

Shelbourne – WaterfordJanuary 18, 2025 · Friendlies Clubs4-1

Shelbourne – WaterfordOctober 18, 2024 · Premier Division3-1

Waterford – ShelbourneJune 13, 2024 · Premier Division0-1

Shelbourne – WaterfordMay 17, 2024 · Premier Division1-0

Waterford – ShelbourneFebruary 16, 2024 · Premier Division1-1

Waterford – ShelbourneOctober 16, 2022 · FAI Cup0-1

Waterford – ShelbourneOctober 10, 2020 · Premier Division0-1

Shelbourne – WaterfordAugust 1, 2020 · Premier Division0-1

62'⇄Ademipo OdubekoOff: Kerr Mcinroy

63'⇄Sean BoydOff: John Martin

69'⚽Jonathan LunneyAssist: Jack Henry-Francis

78'⇄Luke HeeneyOff: Evan McLaughlin

78'⇄Dean McmenamyOff: Padraig Amond

85'⇄joe ashtonOff: Jørgen Voilås

88'⚽Tom LonerganAssist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto

90+2'⇄goforth ameduOff: Noah Mawene

Statistics

75%Possession25%

1.41Expected goals1.79

16Total shots17

7Shots on target6

7Corners2

10Fouls11

3Offsides1

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

3Saves5

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%63Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%64

Shelbourne win%47

Under 2.5%37

Not both score%36

Waterford win%28

Draw%24

Why?

Shelbourne · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Waterford · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Shelbourne: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
Waterford: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Shelbourne scored 1.9 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Waterford scored 1.8 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Shelbourne: 10 games · Waterford: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)2.0

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.8Total goals per gameleague 2.83.4

10/10Over 0.5league %918/10

9/10Over 1.5league %788/10

9/10Over 2.5league %536/10

4/10Over 3.5league %345/10

3/10Over 4.5league %185/10

8/10Both scoreleague %616/10

0/10Clean sheets4/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Shelbourne: 10 games · Waterford: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)2.2

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.83.5

9/10Over 0.5league %9110/10

7/10Over 1.5league %7810/10

5/10Over 2.5league %537/10

3/10Over 3.5league %345/10

3/10Over 4.5league %183/10

7/10Both scoreleague %617/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Shelbourne: a 5-match unbeaten run ended here.

88'

Tom Lonergan decided it in minute 88.

%47 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Shelbourne win 304, 230 end level and Waterford win 466. The actual result comes up 466 times in 1000.

%28 Our model's pre-match chance of an Waterford win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Shelbourne's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Shelbourne · Premier Division

Waterford · Premier Division

Shelbourne · All games

Waterford · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match